Itzulia Preview
Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_), Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)
ROUTE ANALYSIS
| Date | Day | Stage | KM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04 | Monday | Stage 1 (TT) | Bilbao - Bilbao | 13.8 |
| 07/04 | Tuesday | Stage 2 | Pamplona-Iruña - Lekunberri | 164.9 |
| 08/04 | Wednesday | Stage 3 | Basauri - Basauri | 152.8 |
| 09/04 | Thursday | Stage 4 | Galdakao - Galdakao | 167.2 |
| 10/04 | Friday | Stage 5 | Eibar - Eibar | 176.2 |
| 11/04 | Saturday | Stage 6 | Goizper-Antzuola - Bergara | 135.2 |
STAGE 1 - Individual Time Trial
- Schedule: 14.30-17:40 CET
The initial time trial in Bilbao (13.8 km) is not flat, the climb to Santo Domingo (2.4 km at 7%) will create significant differences, as it disrupts rhythm and requires careful effort management. After reaching the summit, there is a favorable section to ride fast, although the final hill before the finish will again demand strong legs and could prove decisive.
STAGE 2 - Finish for Punchers
- Schedule: 13.20-17.30 CET
A long day with constant wear and no real flat meters. The initial chain of climbs already selects riders, but the real race begins after Lekunberri: Zuarrarrate, the passage through Etxaleku and, above all, San Miguel de Aralar (9.4 km at 7.9%) as the day’s main judge, offering a chance to make a move if you want to create gaps.
But beware, it doesn't end cresting the hill. The descent and final hill to Mendukilo can define the day. The last kilometer has an average of over 7%.
STAGE 3 - Finish for Punchers/Escape
- Schedule: 13:40-17:30 CET
The first part is tough, accumulating climbs and wear until the ascent to Barrerilla, which might start breaking the group. The finish is very serious: Bikotx-Gane (8 km at 4.9%, with tough sections) and, after uncomfortable terrain, the wall of Zarátamo (1.5 km at 6.9%) very close to the end. A day for punchers and riders who know how to position themselves. Again, a demanding finish, with 400 meters at 9%.
STAGE 4 - General Contenders/Escape
- Schedule: 13.20-17.30 CET
Santo Domingo, El Vivero, and especially the ascent to Lezama can shake the race before the last pass through the finish line. But the final judge is the climb to Legina (3.2 km at 8%), very close to the finish and after a grueling day. A stage of wear. Here the general classification can start to shape up more before the decisive stages.
STAGE 5 - General Contenders
- Schedule: 1305-17.30 CET
The queen stage, not just because of its toughness but due to the positioning of the climbs. The key is in Krabelin: the toughest of the day and the point where the race must break. Then, Trabakua is perfect terrain to do damage and prevent the race from reorganizing. All this leads to Izua, which is not the place to attack but where you finish off those already weakened. After Izua, there’s still Urkaregi and the arrival in Eibar.
STAGE 6 - General Contenders/Escape
- Schedule: 14.07-17.30 CET
The last day and a very deceptive stage. It’s not the toughest of the week, but one of the most dangerous for the general classification. Elosua and Azkarate, especially repeated, will gradually drain legs in a day without real control.
And if someone wants to overturn the general, it’s possible. The last pass by Elosua really hurts, and the final climb to Aentzio (7.2 km - 5.4%) isn’t extremely tough, but it comes after all the wear. As always in Itzulia: you don’t need an impossible climb, which we've had, to change the general, courage, teamwork, and attacking from afar are needed.
WEATHER
Keep an eye on the wind during the initial stages, as it will likely be the biggest meteorological factor in the race. No severe temperatures or major chances of rain are expected.
PARTICIPANTS
GENERAL FAVORITES
Itzulia is a race that almost never rewards a rider with a spectacular day but is won by those who perform well every day. It's a tour of wear, explosive finishes, narrow roads, technical descents, and small differences that accumulate. Often, the general isn't won by attacking once, but by not failing any day. Therefore, more than pure climbers, this race is for complete, explosive riders who know how to navigate a race.
With that profile, the three names that stand out for me are Isaac del Toro, Juan Ayuso, and Paul Seixas. They perfectly fit this Itzulia: good in time trials, explosive on wall finishes, aggressive, and capable of making a difference in mid-mountain stages.
Just behind, I’d put Primož Roglič, who, while he may not be at his peak, faces an ideal route for him and, if he finds his stride, he might be the one to beat. Then a third tier with very dangerous riders for the general like Tobias Halland Johannessen and Mikel Landa, who, in such a tour due to regularity, could finish very high. Special mention to Ion Izagirre, who, after his victory in Estella, should not be ruled out at all.
We cannot forget about other important riders like Antonio Tiberi, Harold Tejada, Christian Scaroni, Mattias Skjelmose, Florian Lipowitz, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Pello Bilbao, Julian Alaphilippe, Alex Aranburu, Kevin Vauquelin, Marc Soler, or Ben Healy, who might not be the top favorites for the general but always appear strong in an Itzulia and can finish very high if they have a good week.
Lastly, among surprises, we might see riders such as Clément Braz Afonso, Juan Guillermo Martínez, Jamie Meehan, Jon Agirre, Archie Ryan, Lukas Nerurkar, Bruno Armirail, Andrew August, Markel Beloki, Ben Tulett, Nicolas Prodhomme, or Victor Langellotti, names who can become protagonists in a tour like Itzulia if they get into a good move one day or take advantage of a chaotic stage.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Paul Seixas
⭐️⭐️ Juan Ayuso, Isaac del Toro
⭐️ Ion Izagirre, Primož Roglič, Tobias Halland Johannessen
My Favorite: Paul Seixas
My Jokers: Markel Beloki, Ben Tulett
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CONTENDERS FOR STAGE VICTORIES
The reality is that, except for the time trial and potential breakaways, most victories will be contested by the general favorites. In fact, in the time trial, except for what Ethan Hayter might do, it's likely the stage will also remain among these names, as the differences shouldn't be very large and the general contenders will occupy the top positions.
As riders to consider in breakaways, I’d like to highlight Lennard Kämna, Quinn Simmons, and Georg Zimmermann, three very dangerous riders in breakaways on this type of terrain and who, if given freedom, can find their opportunity.
Others like Axel Laurance, Magnus Cort, Alex Aranburu, Francesco Busatto, or Filippo Fiorelli might also have their chance to raise their arms, although the general might be more complicated for them, requiring them to seek their race from specific stages.
TIPS FROM IL CAPO CED TO BE A FANTASY CAPTAIN
💥 Il Capo’s fact.
In 5 of the last 6 editions, the winner had competed in Paris-Nice earlier that season. The exception was Juan Ayuso in 2024, who raced Tirreno-Adriatico.
In those 6 editions, the rest of the GC podium was distributed as follows: 6 had raced Paris-Nice that season, only 2 Tirreno-Adriatico, and 4 had not participated in either tour.
🌟 Capos to watch.
🇫🇷 Favorites who participated in Paris-Nice: Juan Ayuso, Kevin Vauquelin, Brandon McNulty
🇮🇹 Favorites who participated in Tirreno-Adriatico: Isaac del Toro, Primož Roglič, Antonio Tiberi, Tobias Halland Johannessen
✖️ Favorites who didn’t race in either of the 2 races: Paul Seixas, Florian Lipowitz, Mikel Landa, Mattias Skjelmose, Cian Uijtdebroeks
⏱️ The race will start with a 13 km time trial, so, for Fantasy points, if there are doubts with a favorite, always choose the one who will be well-positioned in the GC from day 1 and, if they can also score points for the Young Riders jersey, even better.
📂 Riders with 200 coins in the ‘Ideal 9’
2025: 2
2024: 3
2023: 1
2022: 4
2021: 3
📂 Riders with 10-% in the ‘Ideal 9’
2025: 1
2024: 4
2023: 2
2022: 3
2021: 3
📂 Was the GC podium in the ‘Ideal 9’?
2025: 🥇🥉
2024: 🥇🥉
2023: 🥇🥈🥉
2022: 🥇🥈
2021: 🥇🥈🥉
📂 Was the mountain jersey winner ⛰️ in the top-15 Fantasy points?
2025: ✅ (12th)
2024: ❌ (27th)
2023: ❌ (26th)
2022: ✅ (12th)
2021: ✅ (1st)
📂 Was the sprint jersey winner 🚀 in the top-15 Fantasy points?
2025: ✅ (1st)
2024: ✅ (6th)
2023: ✅ (1st)
2022: ✅ (2nd)
2021: ✅ (1st)
📂 Was the young riders jersey winner 👶🏻 in the top-15 Fantasy points?
2025: ✅ (7th)
2024: ✅ (1st)
2023: ✅ (8th)
2022: ✅ (1st)
2021: ✅ (4th)