Race analysis, favourites, and predictions for Paris-Nice 2019

The Paris-Nice is known as the Race to de Sun, because it begins in the winter and clouds of Paris and ends in the good weather of Côte d'Azur

The Paris-Nice is like a miniature Tour de France, as it has a bit of everything: three flat stages for sprinters, three hilli stages for escapades, an individual time trial, and a mountain stage with more than 4200 meters of accumulated altitude that finishes on the top of Col de Turini. It even has a yellow jersey for the leader. The only thing that does not have are Champs Elysées nor triumphant ride for the champion on the last day. Each second counts. Last year Simon Yates (1200) saw how Marc Soler (800) took back up to 37 seconds in the last stage and won the GC by 4 seconds, counting the stage bonus.

The podium was completed by Gorka Izagirre (1000), and his brother Ion Izagirre (1200) was fourth, although they both suffered a fall in the descent in the final stage, when they escaping with Marc Soler (800) and David de La Cruz (600), who took the final stage for the second consecutive year.

With the signing of the Izagirre brothers for Astana this summer, the formation of Kazakhstan will bring a super team, completed with Miguel Ángel López (1000) who has won the Vuelta a Colombia, and Luis León Sanchez (800) who already knows what is to win a Paris-Nice (2009).

Other winners who will return to Race to the Sun are Sergio Luis Henao (600) (2017) and Richi Porte (1000), winner in 2013 and 2015.

More names to take into account for the general classification: Michael Kwiatkowski (1200), Egan Bernal (1200), Romain Bardet (1000), Nairo Quintana (1200), Dylan Teuns (1000), Wilco Kelderman (1000), Tejay Van Garderen (800) or David de la Cruz (600).

The first three stages, for the sprinters

As flat stages, there are many chances that the three of them will end up in a massive sprint. In order to score strong, for our Cycling Fantasy Team we need runners that can guarantee points.

The MVP of the last edition Arnaud Demare (1200) is a quite reliable option, although the competition will be very strong. Sam Bennett (1200) and Caleb Ewan (1200) have just won a stage in the UAE Tour in front of Elia Viviani (1200) and Fernando Gaviria (1200). Special mention also for Alexander Kristoff (1200), who demonstrated a great cycling class by accepting and executing the sprint preparation for Gaviria at the UAE Tour perfectly. Without Gaviria, he will certainly fight for a victory to demonstrate his power once more.

As we call, victories will be very expensive. They will also be fought by André Greipel (1000), Matteo Trentin (800), John Degenkolb (800), Dylan Groenewegen (1000), Sonny Colbrelli (1000), Fabio Jakobsen (800) and even Magnus Cort Nielsen (800) or Michael Matthews (1200) if it's a selected sprint.

Other options to make points beyond the victory, and more realistic for the budget can be Mark Cavendish (400), Christophe Laporte (600) or Jens Debuschere (600).

One for stage hunters

In the fourth stage, those interested in the KOM jersey will have to be on the escapade. With a breakaway profile, it is ideal for lifelong hunters, people like Rudi Molard (800), Michael Valgreen (800) or Philippe Gilbert (800). It’s very likeable that Thomas de Gendt (800) will be on the breakaway of the day.

An ITT to get the yellow jersey

In the fifth stage the individual time trial takes place, and contenders will play more points than not only the stage, since most likely the winner of the stage will be the new leader. Michael Kwiatkowski (1200) and Michael Matthews (1200) are the main specialists and the victory would normally be for one of them two.

Ion Izagirre (1200), Marc Soler (800), Gorka Izagirre (1000), Luis León Sánchez (800) Tejay Van Garderen (800), Simon Yates (1200) or David de la Cruz (600) can pass it without loosing that much time.

Another hilly stage to decide the KOM

In the sixth stage we will probably see the battle for the king of the mountain jersey again. The breakaway of the day has the potential to get to the finish line. We should see the classicomans again: Thomas De Gendt (800), Tony Gallopin (800) or Philippe Gilbert (800) are supposed to be many minutes on screen.

If finnally the breakaway doesn’t make it, and the peloton catches, many sprinters may not be there, and Matteo Trentin (800) or Michael Matthews (1200) can shine.

Finally, the real mountain

The 7th stage is the queen stage, with more than 4200 meters of positive elevation accumulated and final high in Col de Turini. The fight for the general will be fierce. Last year, Simon Yates (1200) won the stage, arriving alone and becoming the leader of the GC. Richi Porte(1000) is expected to appear, and so are Marc Soler (800), Miguel Ángel López (1000), Ion Izagirre (1200), Gorka Izagirre (1000), George Bennett (1000), Wilco Kelderman (1000), Egan Bernal (1200), Nairo Quintana (1200), Rigoberto Uran (1000), Sergio Henao (600), or Romain Bardet (1000), to name a few.

Every second matters

As we call, in the 8th and last stage nothing is given. The GC will surely be tight and there will be attacks by important men. Last year we attended Marc Soler (800)'s comeback to take the race by 4 seconds.

For the stage, David de la Cruz (600), deserves to be taken as the favorite, as he will intend the challenge of getting the same stage for the third consecutive year.