Race analysis, favourites, and predictions for Tour de France 2025

As tradition dictates, for the Tour de France we present this article, in which we’ll go over all the teams and riders participating in the race. In it, we try to anticipate each team’s collective goals and the individual ambitions of each cyclist. Let’s remember that these are only insights and predictions, and if cycling has taught us anything, it’s that the unpredictable often happens.

Let’s do it!

 
UAE TEAM EMIRATES – XRG

As every year, Tadej Pogačar (1200) arrives at the Tour as the top favorite for the general classification. The winner of the race in 2020, 2021, and 2024 will aim for his fourth title, supported by a very strong team entirely at his service. In almost any other team, João Almeida (1200) would be the undisputed leader, and even while working for Pogačar, he’s a solid candidate for a spot on the final podium. Adam Yates (1000), Pavel Sivakov (400), and Marc Soler (600) are powerful mountain riders, while Tim Wellens (400), Jhonatan Narváez (600), and Nils Politt (200) will work on the flat.

 
TEAM VISMA – LEASE A BIKE

Jonas Vingegaard (1200) has had a perfect lead-up to this year’s Tour and is undoubtedly the main alternative to another Pogačar victory. The winner of the 2022 and 2023 Tours returns with a great team including climbers Sepp Kuss (800), Simon Yates (800), and Matteo Jorgenson (1000), rouleurs Victor Campenaerts (400) and Edoardo Affini (200), puncheur Tiesj Benoot (400), and all-rounder Wout Van Aert (1200), who may have freedom to contest sprints and rolling stages. Van Aert could also be tactically crucial by getting into breakaways as he did in the Giro d’Italia — a move that proved key to Simon Yates’ final victory.

 
SOUDAL – QUICK STEP

Remco Evenepoel (1200) is the third big GC contender, albeit a step below Pogačar and Vingegaard. Evenepoel is the favorite for the individual time trial on stage five and to defend the best young rider jersey he won last year. Tim Merlier (1000) is one of the best sprinters in the world and will go for stage wins on flat days, especially the first, which comes with the bonus of wearing the first yellow jersey. Pascal Eenkhoorn (200) and Bert Van Lerberghe (200) will support Merlier, while Ilan Van Wilder (800), Maximilian Schachmann (400), and Valentin Paret-Peintre (400) will assist Evenepoel in the mountains. Mattia Cattaneo (400) will serve both leaders.

 
RED BULL – BORA – HANSGROHE

On paper, Primož Roglič (1200) is the team’s leader for the GC, but the team also has young Florian Lipowitz (800) as a strong second option. Lipowitz is a good climber who finished third in the Critérium du Dauphiné a week ago. Alexandr Vlasov (800) is expected to be a mountain domestique this time, while the rest of the team seems focused on sprint finishes with Jordi Meeus (600). Laurence Pithie (400), Mick Van Dijke (200), and Gianni Moscon (200) form a powerful lead-out train, topped off by the best current lead-out rider, Danny Van Poppel (600). In stages where Meeus isn’t well positioned, Van Poppel will sprint on his own and is capable of surprising the top sprinters.

 
LIDL – TREK

Mattias Skjelmose (1000) is the team’s GC leader, but the difficulty of the final week of this Tour might be too much for him. Moreover, Skjelmose will be quite isolated in the mountains, as the team is focused on Jonathan Milan (1000) and the battle for sprint stages and the green jersey. The sprint train includes Edward Theuns (200), Simone Consonni (200), Jasper Stuyven (400), and Thibau Nys (600), who can also contest punchy finishes. Toms Skujiņš (400) and Quinn Simmons (400) are riders capable of shining from breakaways. Julien Bernard (200) completes the team as the road captain.

 
TEAM JAYCO ALULA

Ben O’Connor (1000) will aim for a good result in the general classification, while Dylan Groenewegen (800) is the team’s sprinter and will have the support of Luke Durbridge (200), Elmar Reinders (200), and Luka Mezgec (200) in his lead-out train. The team is completed by Mauro Schmid (400), Luke Plapp (400), and Eddie Dunbar (400), who should have freedom to join breakaways in search of a stage win.

 
UNO - X MOBILITY

Søren Wærenskjold (600) is the team’s fast man for the sprints, while Tobias Halland Johannessen (600) will likely test how far he can go in the general classification. The rest of the team will look to shine through breakaways. Magnus Cort (600) is fast in reduced sprints, and Jonas Abrahamsen (600) was one of the standout riders in the King of the Mountains competition in last year’s Tour de France. The team is rounded out by Andreas Leknessund (200), Anders Halland Johannessen (200), Markus Hoelgaard (200), and Stian Fredheim (200), all with freedom to go for glory on selected stages.

 
INTERMARCHÉ - WANTY

Biniam Girmay (1000) will try to defend the green jersey won last year, although things haven’t gone as smoothly this season. Laurenz Rex (200), Jonas Rutsch (200), Vito Braet (200), Roel Van Sintmaartensdijk (200), and Hugo Page (200) will be part of Girmay’s lead-out on flat stages but could also seek the breakaway on other days. Georg Zimmermann (200) and Louis Barré (400) will have total freedom and are particularly dangerous on hilly or medium-mountain stages.

 
COFIDIS

Without a leader for the general, the team will need to shine from breakaways. Emmanuel Buchmann (200) and Dylan Teuns (200) are good climbers, while Ion Izagirre (400) and Benjamin Thomas (200) perform better on rolling terrain. However, the team’s best cards for a stage win might be Alex Aranburu (800), a fast rider who handles hills well, and Bryan Coquard (800), a sprinter who thrives on uphill finishes. The team is completed by Damien Touzé (200) and Alexis Renard (200), who will support Coquard in flat stages.

 
LOTTO

Arnaud De Lie (800) is far from his best form, but he should still be the team’s main man for the sprints. Jarrad Drizners (200), Jasper De Buyst (200), Eduardo Sepúlveda (200), Sébastien Grignard (200), and Brent Van Moer (200) will supporthim on the flat stages. Lennert Van Eetvelt (600) is a good climber and a strong candidate for the mountain jersey in the early weeks. The team is completed by Jenno Berckmoers (400), a young puncheur who showed great form at the Baloise Belgium Tour.

 
DECATHLON AG2R LA MONDIALE TEAM

Felix Gall (800) leads the team and aims for a solid GC result, but the rest of the squad seems destined to seek opportunistic breakaways. Stefan Bissegger (400) and Bruno Armirali (400) are strong time-trialists, with the stage 5 time trial marked in red. Aurélien Paret Peintre (400) is a good puncheur, and Bastien Tronchon (200) is a young rider who shines on tough days, as shown by his victory at this year’s Tro-Bro Léon. The team is completed by Clément Berthet (200), Callum Scotson (200), and Oliver Naesen (200) as road captain.

 
BAHRAIN – VICTORIOUS

Santiago Buitrago (800) is the designated rider for the general classification, while Lenny Martinez (800) could be a candidate for the mountains jersey as the strong climber he is. Jack Haig (200) will serve as a mountain domestique supporting Buitrago and Martinez. For sprints, the team relies on Phil Bauhaus (600) as sprinter, aided by lead-out man Kamil Gradek (200). Alfred Wright (400) is a strong rouleur who will look for victory from breakaways, while Robert Stannart (200) and Matej Mohorič (600) will support their teammates but can try to win from the breakaways as well.

 
EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST

The American team will aim for a stage win in this Tour de France and brings a strong line-up to achieve that goal. Marijn Van Den Berg (600) is the team’s sprinter, but perhaps the best chances of victory will come from breakaways. Neilson Powless (600), Kasper Asgreen (400), Michael Valgren (200), Vincenzo Albanese (400), Harry Sweeny (200), Alex Baudin (400), and Ben Healy (600) form one of the strongest stage-hunting squads of this Tour.

 
ALPECIN – DECEUNINCK

Without a GC leader, the team will focus on sprints with Jasper Philipsen (1200) and Caden Groves (1000), and on puncheur stages with Mathieu Van Der Poel (800). Both the yellow jersey during the early days and the green jersey overall are targets for the team, and they can aim for them with either Philipsen or Van Der Poel. Xandro Meurisse (200) may have some freedom to go for a personal stage win, but the rest of the riders seem set to form part of the sprint train: Jonas Rickaert (200), Silvain Dillier (200), Gianni Vermersch (200), and Emiel Verstrynge (200).

 
GROUPAMA – FDJ

The French arrive with a young squad and no GC leader, which can be liberating for the team. Romain Grégoire (800) is a talented puncheur in form, as evidenced by his stage win at the Critérium du Dauphiné, while in the sprints Paul Penhoet (400) and Louis Askey (400) will be the team's sprinters. Clément Russo (200), Cyril Barthe (200), and Quentin Pacher (400) will likely serve as domestiques, while Valentin Madouas (400) is a solid classics rider who can animate the early race days. The team is rounded out by Guillaume Martin (400), a good climber who could be a candidate for the King of the Mountains jersey.

 
MOVISTAR TEAM

Enric Mas (1000) once again leads the Spanish squad, aiming for a top‑5 finish. Einer Rubio (400), Gregor Mühlberger (200), and Pablo Castrillo (600) will be his trusted mountain supporters, and all three may have freedom to hunt for stage wins. For the other stages, the team relies on Iván García Cortina (400) for flat stages and on breakaway specialists William Barta (200) and Iván Romeo (400) for intermediate stages. Nelson Oliveira (200) is a strong rouleur whose experience makes him a valuable road captain.

 
TEAM PICNIC POSTNL

At just 22 years old, Oscar Onley (800) is in top form. After a great Tour de Suisse, where he finished third overall and won a stage, he arrives at his second Tour aiming to shine in the mountains and on punchy finishes. Frank Van Den Broek (400) and Warren Barguil (200) are puncheurs for intermediate stages, while Tobias Lund Andresen (600) and Pavel Bittner (600) are two strong options for the team in bunch sprints. Niklas Märkl (200), Tim Nabermann (200), and Sean Flynn (200) go to the Tour to support their teammates.

 
ISRAEL PREMIER TECH

Pascal Ackermann (400) and Jake Stewart (400) are the team’s main options for bunch sprints, while Joseph Blackmore (200) is strong on hilly stages. Krist Neilands (200), Matis Louvel (200), and Guillaume Boivin (200) will support the team on the flat, while Michael Woods (400) is a powerful puncheur for steep finishes. Alexey Lutsenko (400) completes the team and will have total freedom to go on the attack.

 
XDS ASTANA TEAM

Without pure sprinters or top climbers, the Kazakh team will aim to be protagonists from breakaways, with riders suited to various terrains. Harold Tejada (600) and Sergio Higuita (200) are the mountain specialists; Simone Velasco (400) and Clément Champoussin (400) are the puncheurs for rolling stages; and Mike Teunissen (400), Cees Bol (200), and Davide Ballerini (200) are the fast men for reduced sprints on flatter terrain. Yevgeniy Fedorov (200) rounds out the team.

 
TEAM TOTALENERGIES

Another team coming with the goal of winning a stage. Emilien Jeannière (400) is a reliable sprinter, and Mathieu Burgaudeau (400) is an explosive puncheur. Anthony Turgis (400) is an aggressive classics rider who will look for his chance on the rolling stages of the first week, and Steff Crass (200) is a solid climber who will have to wait and save energy for an attempt in the final week. Alexandre Delettre (200), Mattéo Vercher (200), Jordan Jegat (200), and Thomas Gachinard (200) will work in support of their teammates.

 
TUDOR PRO CYCLING TEAM

Julian Alaphilippe (600) showed signs of improvement in the recent Tour de Suisse and will surely dream of wearing the yellow jersey again on the early puncheur stages, which also suit Marc Hirschi (800), though the Swiss rider still seems far from his best form. Alberto Dainese (400) is the team's sprinter, supported by experienced lead-out riders Matteo Trentin (400), Marco Haller (200), and Fabian Lienhard (200). Marius Mayrhofer (200) is also fast and could be a backup option if Dainese has trouble. Michael Storer (600), a strong climber who recently finished in the top 10 of the Giro d’Italia, completes the team and could be a contender for the polka-dot jersey.

 
ARKÉA - B&B HOTELS

The team arrives with the aim of winning a stage, which they hope to achieve with Kévin Vauquelin (800) on a rolling stage, Arnaud Démare (400) in the sprints, Clément Venturini (400) on reduced finishes for puncheurs, Cristian Rodríguez (400) in the mountains, or Raúl García Pierna (200) from a breakaway. Amaury Capiot (400), Ewen Costiou (200), and Mathis Le Berre (200) will support their teammates.

 
INEOS GRENADIERS

The British team lines up with a squad in which the leadership role will likely go to Carlos Rodríguez (1200). Thymen Arensman (600) is also a strong climber and had been enjoying a very good season, but things didn’t go too well for him at the Giro d’Italia. The winner of the 2018 edition of the Tour, Geraint Thomas (400), is riding his last Tour de France, although it seems he will do so in a domestique role this time. Filippo Ganna (800) will be targeting the time trial on stage five with the goal of taking the yellow jersey — a dream that Tobias Foss (200) may also share. Axel Laurence (400) is a fast rider suited to uphill finishes, and Samuel Watson (400) could try to shine in one of the first week’s stages. The team is completed by domestique Connor Swift (200).

 
Photo: © Billy Ceusters / A.S.O.