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Analysis by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

• Schedule: 11:05 - 16:50 CET
• TV Start: 10:30 CET

It's Roubaix. It's special. It's hell. A race unlike any other. More than a century of history compressed into a route that isn't designed: it's respected. A living path, traversed by tractors, cars, rain, mud... life in its purest form. And it shows.

Before diving in, it's worth revisiting 1985. That now immortal interview with Theo de Rooij I recall every year:

—“Roubaix is a shit… you're suffering all day like an animal, you don't even have time to pee... you pedal over mud, it's a shit.”
—“Will you come back next year?”
—“Of course! It's the most beautiful race in the world.”

Roubaix is exactly that. Pure contradiction. Beauty within chaos.

And this year, even more so. Because the changes in the route aren't minor: the first cobblestone sectors have been altered and, above all, chained with much more continuity. Less respite, more accumulated fatigue from much earlier. A detail that can change the race script. Additionally, the approach to Arenberg retains the recent format with previous curves, increasing tension on the approach and further intensifying the fight for position, theoretically making that section less dangerous.

The race will start, as tradition dictates, from Compiègne, finishing 260 kilometers later in the Roubaix velodrome. A journey measured not in distance, but in endurance.

The start will be, theoretically, “calm”. Very much in quotes. Because in Roubaix there's never true calm: the wind, the tension, and the fight for the breakaway turn every kilometer into a battle. Nowadays, the breakaway has few real chances of triumph, especially in an edition where the wind should make the pace tougher from very early on. This implies a much faster early race phase, with the big teams controlling from afar and avoiding any margin for surprise.

Still, the day's breakaway will form once more — Roubaix always has one — but everything suggests it will be more of a tactical element than a real threat. And with this new initial chaining of cobblestones, the fatigue will come even before the race reaches its most iconic points.

After 95.8 kilometers, the first sector arrives. And from there, there's no turning back: 30 cobblestone sections. Still, the real race continues to have one name: Arenberg.

The preceding section, from Haveluy, will be absolutely key. Placement here isn’t important; it’s vital. A point that will continue to generate tension, braking, and a fierce battle for position. Anyone wanting to do damage in Arenberg, here you already have to be ahead and hurt.

Arenberg doesn’t win the race. But it breaks it.

After 2,300 meters, the scene will be completely different: the breakaway may have disappeared, the peloton will be fractured, there will be crashes, breakdowns, disjointed faces. And most importantly: there will be no margin for error.

But Roubaix isn’t decided there. It never is in one single point.

Mons-en-Pévèle appears 43 kilometers from the finish as the next major judge. A tough, technical section with treacherous curves where mud often accumulates. Here it's not just about strength, but about control, balance, knowing how to survive. It’s one of those places where you lose winning chances… without anyone needing to attack.

And when it seems there’s nothing left, the final blow comes: Carrefour de l’Arbre.

Probably, the last great moment of the race. A demanding section from the start, with punishing curves that select, before that final straight where countless times we've seen the decisive attack. There's no hiding here. Here the strongest wins… or the most intact.

Having overcome Carrefour, Roubaix starts to be sensed.

Minor sectors remain, but not harmless. And then appears the Charles Crupelandt space, honoring the only winner born in Roubaix. A symbolic place before entering sacred territory.

The velodrome.

The entry is history. The bell rings. One lap. Just one. If you arrive alone, it’s time to enjoy. If you arrive accompanied, it’s time to suffer once more.

Because in Roubaix the suffering never stops.

And whoever wins… doesn’t just lift a trophy. They lift glory.

COBBLESTONE SECTORS

WEATHER

The chances of rain dissipate on Sunday, and it will be Saturday when a drop might appear. This can always change, but it will be difficult.

What does seem certain is that the wind wants to join the party. It will be favorable all day and won’t blow too forcefully, perfect for the race to go faster.

The Big Favorite

Not by much, but deservedly so. Mathieu van der Poel starts as the man to watch in a race seemingly designed for a rider who doesn’t pedal over cobbles, he floats. Both he and his team, with Jasper Philipsen as an honorary lieutenant capable of getting into the right split and playing a key role, know they have one goal in this race: to win.

Let's see how he plays his cards and, wisely, he shouldn’t go too early and should wait to make a dent in the cobblestone sections with more curves. We’ll see.

The Big Rival

Here we have to set Tadej Pogačar. Because yes, he can win and is evidently one of the big favorites, but here he’s not starting as the man with the most chances, which doesn’t mean that by Sunday he could have all five Monuments to his name. By the way, he would achieve them all in the last calendar year and have chances to do so in this season.

It's hard to read the role he has to play, but he’s already shown he won’t shy away from the cobbles. He’ll be there, propose, and seek a position that benefits him, but caution: he doesn’t have to arrive alone at the velodrome to clinch victory. Florian Vermeersch should be his most faithful domestique. I wouldn’t rule out seeing him even in the mix for the podium.

Other Favorites

Here we find old acquaintances: Wout van Aert and Mads Pedersen. It’s true that I’m not completely sure if the Dane will be able to be there, toe to toe with the rest, but if there’s a day to show up even if your form isn't perfect, it’s Roubaix.

I do see Wout van Aert fighting for the win. It does require, though, that he not suffer much misfortune because we know the Belgian’s capabilities, but undoubtedly, if in any Monument he has chances, it’s here.

We must also consider Filippo Ganna, another joining the race. It might suit him well if the race starts quickly and I wouldn’t rule him out of the fight for victory. He already showed at Dwars door Vlaanderen his form and here he needs luck on his side.

The Outsiders

Options already dwindle considerably in this block, where the aforementioned Jasper Philipsen and Florian Vermeersch are. Here runners like Alec Segaert, Christophe Laporte, Jasper Stuyven, Gianni Vermeersch, Jordi Meeus, Jonathan Milan, Tim van Dijke, Josh Tarling, Søren Wærenskjold, Madis Mihkels, Arnaud De Lie, Per Strand Hagenes or Matej Mohorič appear.

Yes, they are riders who can shine and appear, who can even fight to win, but they already have it tough, very tough. A very specific race situation would need to arise, and it seems difficult with the cards we have on the table.

The Surprises

Finally, the batch of riders who may only appear for the day. A group where we need to be clear that John Degenkolb is included, but others like Jakob Söderqvist, Stefan Bissegger, Dries De Bondt, Matyáš Kopecký, Jonas Rutsch, Mike Teunissen, Aimé De Gendt, Stan Dewulf or Marco Haller appear.

Let's not forget that this is a lottery and that, if the legs and especially luck accompany you, it's a perfect race for amazing names to appear in the top 10.

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IL CAPO CED’S TIPS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s data.

With 1 victory this year, Mathieu van der Poel would become the only cyclist in history to win 4 editions in a row.
He currently shares the record of 3 consecutive wins with Octave Lapize, who achieved it between 1909-11.

🌟 Capos to watch.
My recommendation will go by price range.

• 💰 1200 coins (3 riders)
  Tadej Pogačar, Mads Pedersen, Jonathan Milan
  Pogačar is one of the two big favorites. Pedersen only makes sense if you see him definitely on the podium. I wouldn’t choose Jonathan Milan even if wanting to take maximum risk and surprise.
• 💰 1000 coins (5 riders)
  Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay, Tim Merlier
  The first two are almost fixed in any ‘9’. The pick of Philipsen will be justified in any case. Girmay and Merlier shouldn’t be in your team if you want to win.
• 💰 600-800 coins (11 riders)
  Filippo Ganna, Jonas Abrahamsen, Jordi Meeus, Søren Wærenskjold, Anthony Turgis, Matthew Brennan, Phil Bauhaus, Mathias Vacek, Pavel Bittner, Arnaud De Lie, Juan Sebastián Molano
• 💰 400 coins (21 riders)
  Jasper Stuyven, Christophe Laporte, Mike Teunissen, Madis Mihkels, Stefan Bissegger, Alec Segaert, Laurence Pithie, Matyáš Kopecký, Tibor Del Grosso,Josh Tarling, Davide Ballerini, Antonio Morgado, Fred Wright, Luke Lamperti, Lukáš Kubiš
• 💰 200 coins (rest of the peloton)
  Florian Vermeersch, John Degenkolb, Matej Mohorič, Gianni Vermeersch, Tim van Dijke, Mick van Dijke, Stan Dewulf, Aimé De Gendt, Nils Politt, Axel Huens

📂 Riders with -10% who managed to be T10.
2025: 4 (3 of them with less than 2%)
2024: 4 (all with less than 5%)
2023: 3 (incl. 🥈) (the rest with less than 2%)
2022: 4 (3 of them with less than 2%)
2021: 5 (incl. 🥈) (all with less than 5%)
2019: 3 (2 of them with less than 1%)

📂 Riders with 200 coins who managed to be T10.
2025: 4
2024: 4
2023: 2
2022: 3
2021: 4
2019: 2

📂 Riders with 400-600 coins who managed to be T10.
2025: 2
2024: 3
2023: 1
2022: 3
2021: 3
2019: 3

📂 Popular vote of users in the app (15 most selected cyclists).
6 editions played in Fantasy (2019, 2021-25)
Correctly guessed the 🥇: 5/6
Correctly guessed the 🥈: 4/6
Correctly guessed the 🥉: 6/6
Correctly guessed rest of the T10: 17/42