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Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

STAGE 1 – Sprint finish/Breakaway

• Schedule: 13:10–16:50 CET

A lumpy day without major difficulties that opens the race with a profile suited to sprinters or a well-organised breakaway. The route features several third-category climbs spread across the day that can animate the race, such as the Côte de Gargenville (2.3 km at 4.7%), Côte de Vaux-sur-Seine (1.3 km at 6.8%) and Côte de Chambourcy-les-Vignes (1 km at 8.3%), the latter within the final circuit, which will be tackled twice. That circuit in Carrières-sous-Poissy could generate tension in the final kilometres, with a short but demanding climb that could make it harder for the peloton to chase the break or allow for a late attack.

STAGE 2 – Sprinters

• Schedule: 12:50–16:45 CET

A stage clearly designed for sprinters, with a route that only includes small difficulties in the first half of the day. The most notable are the Côte des Mesnuls (1.2 km at 5.5%), Côte de Villeconin (1 km at 6.1%) and Côte du Pressoir (1 km at 6.6%). After that more rolling opening section, the route becomes much more favourable all the way to Montargis, which should allow the peloton to reorganise and set up a bunch sprint at the finish. The wind will have to be watched.

STAGE 3 – Team time trial

• Schedule: 15:10–17:00 CET

A short team time trial but with a slightly demanding route. The course includes a first section of gentle uphill false flat, featuring an opening rise of 1.5 km at 2.8%, before reaching the final part where the climb to Saint-Andelain (600 m at 4.1%) appears, located near the finish. It’s not an especially long time trial, but the irregular terrain can create significant gaps.

STAGE 4 – Puncheurs/GC riders

• Schedule: 12:25–16:45 CET

The first truly selective day, with a profile that favours puncheurs thanks to an irregular, explosive uphill finish. The terrain starts to get tougher in the final third of the stage with the Côte de la Croix des Cerisiers (6.2 km at 4.1%), before tackling the Côte de la Croix de la Libération (4.7 km at 5.3%), which can be used to ramp up the pace before the final climb. The showdown comes at Uchon (8 km at 4.5%), a deceptive ascent hiding a decisive section with much steeper gradients at the end, where the last 1.8 km reach 10.7%.

STAGE 5 – GC riders/Breakaway

• Schedule: 12:05–16:45 CET

A long, lumpy stage that could end up favouring GC riders or giving a breakaway some leeway. The route wears the riders down from quite far out with climbs such as the Côte de Lentilly (2.4 km at 4.3%) and Côte de Trèves (2.4 km at 5.5%), before heading into a much more selective final section. There we find the Côte de Sécheras (3.9 km at 6.8%), a prelude to the decisive difficulties. The race can finally blow apart on the explosive Côte de Saint-Jean-de-Muzols (2.2 km at 10.5%), a very tough climb that can trigger major attacks, before the Côte de Saint-Barthélemy-le-Plain (3.2 km at 7.5%), the last difficulty before the finish and an ideal spot for decisive moves. Beware, because the final five kilometres have an average gradient slightly above 3%.

STAGE 6 – Breakaway/GC riders

• Schedule: 12:50–16:45 CET

A winding day with multiple short climbs in the Luberon that opens the door to a breakaway or moves from GC riders. The route includes several climbs of moderate difficulty, such as the Côte de Saint-Rémy-de-Provence (2.5 km at 4.8%) and the Côte de Bonnieux (2.5 km at 4.1%), before tackling the longest climb of the day, the Col de l’Aire dei Masco (7.2 km at 4.3%). After more rolling terrain, the stage will be decided near the finish on the Côte de Saignon (4.1 km at 5.0%), a climb located in the final kilometres. It’s not a hard day, which allows for different types of moves.

STAGE 7 – GC riders

• Schedule: 11:40–14:55 CET

The race’s first big mountain day, clearly aimed at GC riders. The stage starts to get tough early with the Côte de Carros (7 km at 5.1%), a climb that will help shape the day’s break. Later comes the Côte de Bouyon (1.7 km at 5.3%), before a long, irregular section leading towards the final ascent. The stage will be decided at Auron (7.4 km at 7%), a steady climb that should create significant gaps in the general classification. Overall, such a short stage brings plenty of uncertainty.

STAGE 8 – GC riders

• Schedule: 13:30–16:25 CET

The classic final stage of Paris–Nice: short, explosive and designed so that GC riders can turn the race around on the last day, albeit with climbs generally different from those seen in other years. The route stacks up significant climbs from the first half with the Col de la Porte (6.9 km at 7%), a long ascent that can make the race hard from far out. Later comes the Côte de Châteaunef-Ville-Vieille (6.7 km at 6.4%), before heading to the decisive Côte du Linguador (3.3 km at 8.2%), located relatively close to the finish, 19 kilometres from the line.

THE WEATHER

Rain will be present on several stages, with greater impact on the mid-race days. Beyond that, the wind will always be a factor in the race, as strong gusts are expected almost every day. The temperature, typical for this time of year, will hover around 15°C on almost all the stages.

FAVOURITES FOR THE GC

On paper, there is one big favourite on the start line: Jonas Vingegaard. But with one big question mark: what will his form be like? Lately this doesn’t seem to have been an issue for the Dane or for almost any other rider, but even so, it allows us to think that there is a chance someone can challenge him and we get a tight GC battle on the road to Nice.

Without doubt, the main candidate to do so is Juan Ayuso. His sensations at the start of the season have been very good, with his win in the Algarve, and the route suits him practically to perfection. Behind him there are other names such as Carlos Rodríguez, Kevin Vauquelin, Brandon McNulty, Daniel Felipe Martínez, Sergio Higuita, Lenny Martínez and Oscar Onley, who, given the route, could be the third man in contention. I have doubts about the role Aleksandr Vlasov can play, but if he arrives with good legs he could be one of the pleasant surprises in the GC.

Beyond that, talking about overall victory means counting on a surprise. We find names like David Gaudu, Igor Arrieta, Nicolas Prodhomme, Pavel Sivakov, Ion Izagirre, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Torstein Træen, Harold Tejada or Mathys Rondel, but I’m actually going to stick with Ewen Costiou and Iván Romeo as jokers. Two riders who come in good form and can play their cards in very different ways. The rider from Valladolid will surely be visible in breakaways and long-range moves, while the Frenchman may also find a route ahead of him that is quite favourable.

CANDIDATES FOR STAGE WINS

We’ll have to consider the fast men on one hand and the rouleurs on the other, bearing in mind the different chances for breakaways to succeed throughout the race.

Among the fast men, no name stands out especially and perhaps the main candidate is Biniam Girmay. Alongside him we have others such as Milan Fretin, Max Kanter, Alberto Dainese, Phil Bauhaus, Dorian Godon, Milan Menten, Orluis Aular, Casper van Uden, Bryan Coquard, Pascal Ackermann or Luke Lamperti. A relatively low level, but in line with the route the race presents.

On the other hand, among the rouleurs and riders who can feature in breakaways, besides those who will be involved in the GC, we find names such as Sam Watson, Andreas Leknessund, Nicolas Vinokurov, Yevgeni Fedorov, Rasmus Tiller, Kasper Asgreen, Pablo Castrillo or Alexandre Delettre, who, together with others like Tim van Dijke or Matteo Trentin, who can also show themselves in the sprints, can be riders to watch.

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IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s stat.

The Visma | Lease a Bike team has 3 overall victories + one podium in the last 4 editions.

🌟 Capos to follow.

1200; Jonas Vingegaard.
The only rider, along with Juan Ayuso, who is worth this many coins.
The Visma | Lease a Bike rider makes his season debut here in a race he still hasn’t managed to win after 2 participations.
Will it be third time lucky?

1000; Biniam Girmay.
Here I’m going with the sprinter for a simple reason: the other 3 riders worth 1000 coins race on the same team and I’m not entirely sure what roles each of them will have. I think they’ll all end up taking GC, stage and young rider points off each other, whereas with Biniam Girmay you’re guaranteed points in the first two stages no matter what.

800; Lenny Martínez.
The young 22-year-old rider will score points in the young rider classification and is also a clear candidate to be top 5 in the GC.
He comes in form after finishing 5th, 3rd and 3rd in the 3 classics he has raced in France.
Last year he scored 115 Fantasy pts in this race (8th best).

600; Daniel F. Martínez.
There are several options, but I’m going with the Red Bull Bora rider, who is coming off a very good Volta ao Algarve, finishing 7th in the GC and scoring 61 Fantasy pts (8th best).

400; Milan Fretin.
We’ll go with the sprinter option. A rider who has already won a stage this season and who will be a perfect piece to fill out many teams. His opportunities will be the first two stages.

200; Ewen Costiou.
We don’t know if he will be the Groupama-FDJ leader given the presence of David Gaudu, but this is undoubtedly a good race for him to take a step forward and show that he really can be the team’s new face in stage races.
He will fight for the young rider jersey and also comes in good form after winning the GC of Étoile de Bessèges and finishing 6th in the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes classic.

📂 Riders at -10% who managed a T10.
2025: 2
2024: 4 (incl. the 3rd with most pts)
2023: 3 (incl. the 2nd with most pts)
2022: 4 (incl. the 3rd with most pts)
2021: 3
2020: 7 (incl. the 1st and 2nd with most pts)
2019: 3

📂 Users’ popular vote in the app (15 most selected riders).
7 editions played in Fantasy.
How many riders did they have from the top 10 (Fantasy pts)?

2025: 5
2024: 5
2023: 5
2022: 5
2021: 5
2020: 2
2019: 3