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Analysis written by Diego Martín (@martinthecaleb)

ROUTE ANALYSIS OF THE TROFEO ALFREDO BINDA - COMUNE DI CITTIGLIO 2026

• Schedule: 13:00 - 17:00 (UTC+1, Madrid)

Once again, Cittiglio hosts the finish of what is, on paper, the most wide-open classic at the start of the spring cycling season. The best sprinters, classics specialists, passistas and climbers can all be contenders for victory in the race that commemorates the legacy and career of La Gioconda, the campionissimo Alfredo Binda.

The route is similar to that of recent years: almost 153 kilometres starting in the municipality of Luino. From there, the riders will cover an initial 65 km section with the now familiar climbs of Masciagno Primo (3.5 kilometres at 5.5%) and Orino (from Cocquio, 3.85 kilometres at 3%) before entering the final circuit.

They must complete five laps of the almost 18-kilometre circuit, marked by the climbs to Casalzuigno/Casale (0.85 kilometres at 7%) and Orino (from Cuvio, 3.90 kilometres at 3.9%).

The last passage over Orino, just 8 kilometres from the finish line, and its descent shape up as the final opportunity to completely split the race and avoid the victory being decided in a bunch sprint.

THE WEATHER

The weather is not expected to be decisive in the Trofeo Alfredo Binda 2026. Mild temperatures close to 12 degrees are forecast, with a slightly low wind chill (around 6 degrees). No rain is expected on race day, although the forecast could change. The wind is expected to blow from the southwest, slightly favourable in the final part of the circuit, and without much intensity (20 km/h on average and gusts of up to 35).

FAVOURITES FOR THE TROFEO ALFREDO BINDA - COMUNE DI CITTIGLIO 2026

Preamble

This is the most open classic at the start of the spring cycling season, the kind where, when you venture to name a small group of contenders for victory, you end up holding a whole fan. A climber, a sprinter, a rouleur or a classics specialist could win. Cittiglio has accustomed us to every kind of outcome, from finishes in very small groups, to solo breakaways, to sprints from large groups.

Note on the most recent editions: a dominant team

The most recent editions have been marked by a dominant team – or at least a consistently winning one. Lidl-Trek have taken victory in every edition since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the last five years, 2 victories have come from solo moves, while on 3 occasions the win has been decided in a small group. In the five previous editions, on 2 occasions the victory was decided among a few riders, on 1 occasion it came from a solo adventure, and on 2 occasions it came after the sprint of a reduced group.

Big favourites from the speed bracket

The Dutch rider Lorena Wiebes is a favourite to take victory in any race she enters where there is a chance of a group finish. Her absence shapes and broadens the range of possible winners from the “speed” department.

We start with her own team, SD Worx-Protime. Without the Dutch sprinter, the Dutch squad has two very strong cards in the event of a possible sprint finish. We are talking about the Dutch rider Mischa Bredewold and the Belgian Lotte Kopecky. Both have hardly raced on the road (Omloop and Strade) – they rode the European Track Championships in Turkey – and the results have not been as hoped. It is true that, in Kopecky’s case, luck has been quite distant. Even so, more is expected from these two team leaders, and they are undoubtedly contenders for victory in Cittiglio.

Without Wiebes and with Balsamo a question mark, the Dutch rider Marianne Vos (Visma Lease a Bike) is probably the big favourite for the win. One more victory would put her alone at the top of the honours list of this race. Vos is a sure bet and, although she has only raced Strade, she has already shown that we must keep her very much in mind. She will have the Canadian Sarah van Dam as a quality lead-out or as a possible secondary card.

Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek) is the big doubt – due to the lack of an announcement by her team at the time of writing – among the top sprinters. We usually cite her as one of the few capable of challenging the Dutch Wiebes and matching Vos’s level. She is at home, in her favourite race and in that of her team. One more victory would put her level with Canins and Vos. If she starts, the Italian will be a top favourite for the win.

The major contenders

One team whose options in this classic have clearly changed since last year is Movistar. The arrival of the Briton Cat Ferguson has given the team a solid opportunity in bunch sprints. In a year when Movistar felt the absence, due to maternity, of the Cuban Arlenis Sierra, Fergusson emerged as the leader and reference rider in races of this profile. She may lack a top lead-out or positioner to fight on equal terms with the very best, but if she can take advantage of the work of other teams and the finish comes from a reduced group, she is a solid candidate to fight for victory.

The Swiss rider Noemi Ruegg (EF Education-Oatly) is another of the big favourites in this classic. We have already said several times that she is not a pure sprinter, but she seems determined to prove that she is capable of beating the best sprinters on their own terrain. Her start to the season in Australia was sensational. Although she has not raced much since Australia, we should trust her form. The harder the race and the smaller the group, the greater her chances of winning.

The New Zealander Ally Wollaston (FDJ United - SUEZ) will make her debut in Cittiglio. At the start of the season in Oceania she was outstanding, but in Extremadura she succumbed to Consonni and Balsamo. This classic may still be a challenge that is a bit too big for the New Zealand champion. Even so, we should keep the kiwi rider on our radar this Sunday and assess her progression in classics of this profile.

Other favourites with a notable final rush

The Italian Letizia Paternoster (Liv AlUla Jayco) is a rider to be taken very much into account at this finish. She may lack a bit of team support to organise the lead-out for her, but it feels like she is getting better and better at coping with uphill efforts.

There are several riders we must consider, either because their teams have other main options in terms of sprinters, or because they bring strength in other areas: fast riders such as the Italian Sofia Bertizzolo and the Briton Lauren Dickson (FDJ United-SUEZ), the Italian Letizia Borghesi (AG Insurance - Soudal), the Pole Agnieszka Skalniak-Sojka (CANYON//SRAM zondacrypto), the Italian Eleonora Gasparrini, and the Dutch rider Karlijn Swinkels (UAE Team ADQ).

Big favourites away from the pure sprinters

The Pole Kasia Niewiadoma (CANYON//SRAM zondacrypto) is probably the first big favourite who comes to mind outside of a sprint scenario. She knows what it is to win here and is in remarkable form.

Another former winner who will obviously appear in many predictions is the Italian Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ). She cracked at the end in Strade, but along with Niewiadoma she is a rider whose pedal stroke leaves no doubt. She probably has the best team and can use it to wear down her rivals.

The Dutch rider Puck Pieterse (Fenix-Deceuninck) is one of the riders best equipped to spring a surprise – or to blow the race apart. Her aggression and power made her a standout presence in the international peloton in 2024. She is no longer a surprise factor. On some days she seems to race more measured than in her breakthrough season, but on others it looks like she is still playing all or nothing. At Alfredo Binda that all-or-nothing gamble could give her a chance to win and create a great spectacle.

Other contenders

The Italian Monica Trinca Colonel (Liv AlUla Jayco), the Spaniard Mavi García (UAE Team ADQ), the Belgian Justine Ghekiere (AG Insurance-Soudal), the Dutch rider Thalita de Jong (Human Powered Health), the Dutch rider Anna van der Breggen (SD Worx-Protime), the Dutch rider Shirin van Anrooij and the New Zealander Niamh Fisher-Black (Lidl-Trek), the world champion Magdeleine Vallieres (EF Education-Oatly) and the Briton Pfeiffer Georgi (Picnic PostNL).