Strade Bianche Preview
Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_), Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced).
ROUTE ANALYSIS
- Schedule: 11:45 - 16:00 CET
- TV start: 14:15 CET
202.6 kilometers and 14 sectors (in reality 15) of sterrato. The 2026 Strade Bianche comes with a few changes after criticism of the extreme difficulty of the route in recent editions. The organizers have decided to particularly modify the central part of the race with the aim of making it slightly less demanding, without touching too much of the finale that has turned this race into one of the most spectacular on the calendar.
In total, two sterrato sectors of six and eight kilometers have been removed, reducing the amount of gravel to 64 kilometers, far from the more than 80 kilometers ridden in the previous edition. Even so, the character of the race remains intact, with relentlessly leg-sapping terrain and close to 3500 meters of elevation gain.
The day starts with several relatively short sectors that begin to whittle down the peloton very early. Sectors like Vidritta, Bagnaia or Radi appear in the first third of the race and force teams to fight for position before entering the gravel.
But the moment when the race really starts to bite comes with San Martino in Grania (9.3 km) – a long sector, generally uphill and with demanding ramps, which usually marks the transition into the decisive phase of the race.
Shortly afterwards comes one of the most emblematic sections of Strade Bianche: Monte Sante Marie (11.3 km). This sector, known as the Fabian Cancellara sector, is still a long way from the finish, but even so it has been the scene of some of the most important moves in recent years. In several editions the race has exploded here, often driven by the aggressive pace of UAE Team Emirates and riders like Tadej Pogačar, who could once again launch the decisive attack on this stretch.
From there the final phase begins, with the intensity only ramping up. After the Monteaperti sector, the race enters the decisive circuit around Siena.
In that final loop we find two of the toughest sectors of the entire race, which are also tackled twice: Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe. Colle Pinzuto features ramps reaching 15%, while Le Tolfe hits 18%, turning these roads into genuine selection points inside the last 30 kilometers. The passage over Montechiaro between the two ascents of these sectors is also noteworthy.
After the second time over Le Tolfe —where Mathieu van der Poel launched the attack in 2021 that took him to victory— the race heads definitively towards Siena.
The grand finale comes in the last kilometers with the climb to Piazza del Campo via Via Santa Caterina. It’s a brutally hard finish, with ramps well over 10%, where we’ve seen attacks that no one could answer. Whoever reaches the last corner in the lead usually has half the victory in their pocket. The final meters, slightly downhill and on Siena’s paving stones, are usually already time to celebrate.
The Sterrato Sectors
| Nº | Sector | Distance | Km start |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vidritta | 2.4 km | 7.1 |
| 2 | Bagnaia | 3.5 km | 16.5 |
| 3 | Radi | 4.4 km | 26.1 |
| 3 bis | Cantiere T. Stile | 0.4 km | 40.6 |
| 4 | Lucignano d'Asso | 11.9 km | 69.7 |
| 5 | Pieve a Salti | 8.0 km | 83.9 |
| 6 | San Martino in Grania | 9.4 km | 106.0 |
| 7 | Monte Sante Marie | 11.5 km | 119.1 |
| 8 | Monteaperti | 0.6 km | 148.4 |
| 9 | Colle Pinzuto | 2.4 km | 156.2 |
| 10 | Le Tolfe | 1.1 km | 161.1 |
| 11 | Strada del Castagno | 0.7 km | 164.6 |
| 12 | Montechiaro | 3.3 km | 168.7 |
| 13 | Colle Pinzuto | 2.4 km | 186.3 |
| 14 | Le Tolfe | 1.1 km | 191.6 |
THE WEATHER
Let’s be honest: there’s little to highlight here. An almost perfect day is expected in meteorological terms, and nothing should influence whether the race tilts one way or another from this point of view.
FAVORITES FOR THE WIN
Who can beat Tadej Pogačar? That’s the doubt, that’s the question, and it’s one with an easy answer: in principle, no one. Those who can be closest to the Slovenian are Tom Pidcock and Paul Seixas. The former has already shown that he’s going to go out and try, even if he ends up blowing up; the Frenchman, for his part, is a clear what-if. Ever since his performances in the junior ranks I’ve argued he’s a generational rider, and I think it’s still early for him to stand up to E.T., but even so he comes in off a convincing win and that at least makes us wonder whether he’ll be capable.
Behind them, or even ahead of them, there’s another UAE rider: Isaac del Toro. We’ll see what role he plays and where he wants to show his cards, whether he wants to try to follow Pogačar or not, but what seems certain is that he has a podium place practically reserved.
The drop to the next tier is noticeable, and there we find riders like Matteo Jorgenson, Romain Grégoire, Giulio Pellizzari, Jan Christen, Pello Bilbao, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Filippo Zana, Quinn Simmons, Julian Alaphilippe or, above all, Wout van Aert. I don’t really know what to expect from the Belgian, but without doubt a motivated version of him is the only one from this group that I can truly see getting into the fight. Even so, I wouldn’t stick my neck out, because I’m not entirely convinced that he, even now, has the ability to be there on a day like this.
We now move on to the surprise tier, because the places of honor seem to have clear, obvious names. Riders like Tibor del Grosso, Emiel Verstrynge, Simone Gualdi, Roger Adrià, Diego Pescador, Adrien Boichis, Gianmarco Garofoli, Tobias Halland Johannessen or Simone Velasco. Even so, my two picks are going to be Albert Withen Philipsen and Jenno Berckmoes. I still have a lot of faith in the Dane and, in this race, he was 25th last season; it’s true he came in much stronger then, but I’d still give him a chance. As for Jenno, he has prepared well for this start to the season and, although it might be a slightly hard day for him, I trust he can be up there.
IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY
💥 Il Capo’s stat.
Pogačar is the only rider in history to have won 2 consecutive editions.
🌟 Capos to watch.
1200; Tadej Pogačar.
It couldn’t be anyone else. The Slovenian wants to keep making history by taking his 4th Strade Bianche – which would be an all-time record for the race.
1000; Wout van Aert.
You’ll have to allow me to put my faith in Wout. 3rd, 3rd, 1st and 4th in his four appearances in this race. While it may seem that his best years on the sterrato are behind him, we shouldn’t forget that he won the stage finishing in Siena with plenty of sterrato in the last Giro d’Italia.
If luck is on his side, he could easily fight for a top-5.
800; Ben Healy.
4th last year. He’s one of those riders who rise to the occasion in big races and in events where the distance exceeds 200 km.
600; Lennert Van Eetvelt.
11th and 9th in his two appearances in this race. A reliable rider on sterrato who has started the season in good shape with his 6th place in the GC at the UAE Tour.
400; Filippo Zana.
He has managed to score points in 2 of his 5 editions here, including that 9th place in 2024. He comes in good form after winning the GC at the Giro di Sardegna.
200; Paul Seixas.
The price for good Paul is outrageous. We could easily be talking about a top-3 at Strade Bianche 2026.
And even if he were only top-100, at that price you have to have him in your team no matter what.
📂 Riders priced -10% who managed a T10.
2025: 1
2024: 0
2023: 2
2022: 3
2021: 5 (including 🥉)
2020: 4 (including 🥈🥉)
📂 Popular vote from users in the app (15 most selected riders).
6 editions played in Fantasy.
They nailed 🥇: 6/6
They nailed 🥈: 4/6
They nailed 🥉: 2/6
They nailed the rest of the T10: 52.3% (22/42)