News

Written analysis by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

Date	Day	Stage	Km
09/03	Monday	Stage 1 (ITT)	Lido di Camaiore – Lido di Camaiore
10/03	Tuesday	Stage 2	Camaiore – San Gimignano
11/03	Wednesday	Stage 3	Cortona – Magliano de' Marsi
12/03	Thursday	Stage 4	Tagliacozzo – Martinsicuro
13/03	Friday	Stage 5	Marotta-Mondolfo – Mombaroccio
14/03	Saturday	Stage 6	San Severino Marche – Camerino
15/03	Sunday	Stage 7	Civitanova Marche – San Benedetto del Tronto

STAGE 1 - Individual time trial

• Time: 12:40–15:44 CET

The race opens with a completely flat individual time trial along the avenues of Lido di Camaiore. It’s a fast course, practically at sea level and without any real difficulties, designed for pure rouleurs and time trial specialists. Time gaps will depend mainly on aerodynamics and pacing, as well as the wind during the stage. It’s an initial GC test, with the gaps at the finish line already potentially decisive.

STAGE 2 - Puncheurs

• Time: 10:55–15:45 CET

A rolling day with an ideal finish for puncheurs and the added ingredient of gravel in the decisive section. After a relatively gentle start, the terrain progressively becomes tougher before a demanding finale that recalls certain Italian one-day races and, above all, the more “classic” editions of Tirreno. The race may start to stretch on the sequence of climbs before San Gimignano (Pomarance, 3.5 km at 4.2%; Montecerboli, 3.5 km at 4.2%; Castelnuovo Val di Cecina, 1.7 km at 8.6%; Colle Val d’Elsa, 2.1 km at 5.6%) before tackling the final ramp up to the historic center (1.3 km at 7.6%). An explosive finish where puncheurs have perfect terrain to impose themselves.

STAGE 3 - Sprinters

• Time: 10:40–15:45 CET

A long stage that should be decided in a sprint, although the distance and terrain can always make the day harder. There are no major climbs, but several ascents scattered along the route can wear down the peloton (Iodi, 2.3 km at 5.4%; Acquasparta, 3.6 km at 4.2%; Marmore, 5.3 km at 4.0%; Svincolo di Petrella Salto, 7.0 km at 4.0%). After the last ascent, the profile tends to flatten out towards the finish, which favors control by the sprinters’ teams. A day of accumulating fatigue where the sprinters should have their clearest opportunity of the week.

STAGE 4 - Breakaway/Reduced sprint

• Time: 10:25–15:45 CET

A deceptive day that combines a more demanding start with a long descent towards the coast, opening the door both to a breakaway and to a reduced sprint. The first half of the stage packs in the main difficulties with two long climbs (Ovindoli, 11.9 km at 4.9%; Valico delle Capannelle, 12.9 km at 4.5%), before the terrain starts to descend progressively towards the Adriatic. In the final part there are still short, sharp ramps that can whittle down the group (Feudo Alto, 2.4 km at 8.0%; Castellalto, 7.6 km at 4.5%; Tortoreto, 1.5 km at 8.4%). If the pace is high on these late climbs and the break has been kept under control, it would not be surprising to see a reduced group fighting for the win.

STAGE 5 - GC riders/Breakaway

• Time: 10:55–15:45 CET

One of the most interesting days for the general classification, on terrain full of short, steep climbs. From the opening kilometers, demanding hills appear that can split the race (Villa del Monte, 1.7 km at 8.9%; Monte Santa Croce, 3.4 km at 8.6%; Monte delle Cesane, 7.2 km at 7.0%), before a particularly nervy finale. In the last kilometers, several climbs follow one another that can trigger attacks among the favorites (Santuario S. Pietro e Paolo, 2.4 km at 6.5%; Monte della Mattera, 6.5 km at 5.0%; Santuario del Beato Sante, 1.2 km at 9.0%) before the climb once again up to Santuario del Beato Sante.

STAGE 6 - Puncheurs/GC riders

• Time: 10:45–15:45 CET

A very demanding medium-mountain stage that should spark moves among the GC riders, although the profile also suits puncheurs. The major difficulty of the day is the climb to Sassotetto (13.1 km at 7.3%), which can create a significant selection before a finale packed with undulating terrain. It is the only long ascent in the race, but it lies too far from the finish to be truly decisive on its own. The remaining terrain keeps the tension high with several short but intense climbs. A circuit will then be covered three times before the final ascent to Camerino (3.2 km at 8.9%). A hard and explosive finish on a day that will be crucial in deciding the overall winner.

STAGE 7 - Sprinters/Breakaway

• Time: 12:30–15:45 CET

A stage that, on paper, looks set for the sprinters, although the way the race unfolds could also favor a breakaway if the peloton hesitates in the chase. The central section features several short climbs that can spark attacks (Campofilone, 3.4 km at 5.1%; Montefiore dell’Aso, 1.7 km at 4.2%; Ripatransone, 2.8 km at 4.6%) before the riders reach the final circuit in San Benedetto del Tronto. This circuit, completely flat and very fast, can be difficult to control if a break arrives with a sufficient advantage, opening the door both to a bunch sprint and to a surprise from the break.

THE WEATHER

Rain could make an appearance particularly in the first part of the week. After that, temperatures will be on the cold side, around 12 ºC, which could also make the stages a bit faster. Finally, not much wind is expected during the week, but we will have to keep an eye on how it develops.

GC FAVORITES

Even with teams still to be confirmed and only the big names pencilled in, it seems clear that this route should produce a very close fight to determine the overall winner of this Tirreno-Adriático. The opening time trial can play an important role in shaping the final podium, and this start suits Isaac del Toro very well. In fact, we can say the Mexican lines up as the big favorite on a route that fits his characteristics quite well.

Behind him, other riders come into the frame such as Matteo Jorgenson, Antonio Tiberi, Primož Roglič (making his seasonal debut), Ben Healy, Jan Christen and Santiago Buitrago, who perhaps make up the second tier of major contenders for the title. But I have to say that I trust quite a lot in what Mathieu van der Poel can do here: he has a perfect opportunity to fight for an overall of this kind. We could say something similar about Filippo Ganna and Wout van Aert, although they raise a few more doubts for me.

A notch below, we can mention other riders such as Pello Bilbao, Thymen Arensman, Giulio Pellizzari, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Richard Carapaz, Julian Alaphilippe and Christian Scaroni, and I’m also keen to see what riders like Alessandro Pinarello, Jonas Abrahamsen, Paul Lapeira and Clément Champoussin can do. Pending the final start list and any interesting late additions, I’m going to put my faith in Ilan Van Wilder and Pierre Gautherat as my jokers for these days in Italy.

CONTENDERS FOR STAGE WINS

We will have to consider the fast men on one hand and the time trialists on the other, with that opening day in mind.

Among the fast men, two riders stand out above the rest, and they should also serve up a fascinating duel: Jonathan Milan and Paul Magnier. They overshadow a strong field of sprinters behind them, as we will also have on the start line riders such as Jasper Philipsen, Arnaud De Lie, Tobias Lund Andresen, Pavel Bittner, Danny van Poppel, Oded Kogut and Sam Welsford. And it doesn’t end there, because, with much more remote chances of victory, we will also have to keep an eye on others like Madis Mihkels, Luca Mozzato and Fernando Gaviria.

On the other hand, among the time trialists, the standout figure is Filippo Ganna, who will be the big favorite on the opening day. The main candidates to try to beat him will perhaps be Ethan Hayter, Isaac del Toro and Magnus Sheffield, but we will also have to keep an eye on other interesting names like Primož Roglič, Ilan Van Wilder, Antonio Tiberi, Thymen Arensman, Huub Artz and even Jonathan Milan.

---

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s stat.

Since the 2020 edition, a Bora rider has always managed to finish in the T5 of the GC.
2025: Jai Hindley 5th
2024: Jai Hindley 🥉
2023: Lennard Kämna 4th
2022: Jai Hindley 5th
2021: Matteo Fabbro 5th
2020: Rafał Majka 🥉

🌟 Capos to follow.
800; Paul Magnier.
One of the sprinters in best form this season, with 2 stages won in the only stage race he has ridden so far. Will he be able to repeat that here?
Another option for 800; Giulio Pellizzari.

600; Tobias Lund Andresen.
1 stage win + another 3 T3 in the Tour Down Under. He also won the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and was then 6th in Omloop + 7th in Kuurne in Belgium. In other words, in 100% of the sprints he has been able to contest he has always finished at least top 7. Crushing consistency so far.
Another option for 600; Jai Hindley.

400; Paul Lapeira.
Impressive in Strade Bianche, where he was 14th but was fighting with the best for the places of honor. He has started the season like a cosmic ray: 1 win + another 4 T5.
Another option for 400; Ethan Hayter.

200; Luca Mozzato.
A sprinter for 200 is almost always a good option. Even more so if we are talking about the Italian from Tudor, who was already 2nd in Kuurne, beaten only by a huge Matthew Brennan.
Another option for 200; Huub Artz.

📂 Riders with <10% selections who made the T10 of Fantasy points.
2025: 2
2024: 4
2023: 6 (including 2nd and 3rd most points)
2022: 5
2021: 1
2020: 2
2019: 4 (including the top scorer)

📂 Popular vote.
Of the 15 riders most selected by users in the app, how many ended up in the T10 for Fantasy points?
2025: 7
2024: 6
2023: 2
2022: 5
2021: 7
2020: 5
2019: 6