Tour Down Under Preview
Written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced) from Le Puncheur.
ROUTE ANALYSIS
| Stage | Date | Km | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prologue | Jan 20 | 3.6 | Adelaide - Adelaide |
| 1 | Jan 22 | 120.6 | Tanunda – Tanunda |
| 2 | Jan 23 | 148.1 | Norwood – Uraidla |
| 3 | Jan 23 | 140.8 | Henley Beach – Nairne |
| 4 | Jan 24 | 176 | Brighton – Willunga Hill |
| 5 | Jan 25 | 169.8 | Stirling – Stirling |
STAGE 0 - Initial Prologue.
- Schedule: 08:30- 11:00. GMT+1
The Tour Down Under will begin with a prologue of barely three kilometers six hundred and three meters. A distance sufficient to focus on the technical difficulty of the day, which, along with the weather conditions, could decide the winner and first leader of this edition. A total of 9 turns and hardly any straights throughout the time trial. This prologue is not excessively good for time trial specialists, and is rather suited to powerful riders. We might see a surprise in this inaugural stage.
STAGE 1 - Sprint finish
- Schedule: 01:50. - 04:25. GMT+1
The first stage of this Tour Down Under takes place entirely on a circuit around Tanunda. The day is not excessively tough, but it is true that the pass through Menglers Hill (2.1km - 3.7%) could break up the race a bit, although it seems unlikely.
Therefore, it looks likely that the first road stage will be contested in a sprint and the fastest men will fight for the first victory and leadership. There's not much to highlight in the last kilometers, a slight positive inclination, but in general a rather clean sprint.
STAGE 2 - Mid-mountain/Important day for the general classification
- Schedule: 01:50. - 05:20. GMT+1
The difficulty increases in this third day of racing, accumulating 2800 meters of positive elevation. A day that starts uphill, with the ascent to Asthon (10km - 4%) allowing the breakaway to form and gain elevation.
After this initial ascent, the peloton will enter the circuit that will define the day and they will cover it a total of two times. This circuit is marked by the passage through Fox Creek Climb (3.6km - 6.7%), a not very long ascent but enough to cause some damage and allow certain moves. The last pass through this hill will be just over 12.69 kilometers from the finish, being the perfect moment to jump from the peloton and try to make it to the finish line.
It is true that it seems far, but the terrain continues to incline until seven kilometers to go, when it tends downward to the finish with the exception of a bump uphill in Asthon (400m - 7.6%) which is tackled four kilometers from the finish and could be the perfect point for the definitive move.
STAGE 3 - Sprint stage/Escape
- Schedule: 02:10. - 05:10. GMT+1
A long but deceptive profile. 1800 positive meters well distributed, without decisive climbs but with constant bumps that whittle down the legs. A nervous start, terrain for breakaways with faith, and a more inclined central part that invites the peloton to reorganize. The deceptive part is mainly that it won't be a stage where we might see key moves for the general classification.
The final section climbs upward again, without definitive ramps but sufficiently demanding to unsettle the sprinters' trains. However, a day marked for a mass finish, unless some brave soul tries their luck from afar and finds hesitation behind. A day of patience, positioning, and fresh legs at the end.
STAGE 4 - Stage for the general classification
- Schedule: 01:45. - 05:55. GMT+1
Undoubtedly the queen stage. Triple pass through Willunga Hill (3km - 7.4%), leaving the last two in the final kilometers to decide the general classification of the Tour Down Under. Let's not fool ourselves, the first of the two final passes will create toughness, but it's almost inevitable that someone might win by attacking at this point.
Thus, it's normal to think that the 3200 meters of climbing to Willunga Hill will decide, on its third pass, the stage and also the general classification. An ascent that can allow for differences if it's ridden very fast from the bottom, but which lately results more in small differences at the finish. Still, one of the race's great attractions. Time to remember Richie Porte.
STAGE 5 - Reduced sprint/General classification men
- Schedule: 01:40. - 05:40. GMT+1
A stage of constant ups and downs, without major climbs but without a free meter. Chained bumps organized in the Stirling circuit (7.3 km – 2.3%), a repeated climb that can break the group's dynamics if someone decides to up the tempo. A circuit to be completed a total of eight times to cap off this edition of the Tour Down Under at the top of this climb.
Hard to make clear differences, but being the last day, if the general classification is still open, it could turn into a beautiful day: distant attacks, nerves, and more than one trying until the end.
WEATHER
The heat will be one of the factors to consider in the Tour Down Under, with significantly warmer days than usual for riders arriving from the European winter. Temperatures will remain within a stable range, between 26 and 32 degrees, without extreme readings. The meteorological outlook points to dry weather (but not without humidity) throughout the race, with a very remote possibility of instability on Monday. No wind conditions are expected to alter the normal course of the stages either.
PARTICIPANTS
GENERAL CLASSIFICATION FAVORITES
Tour Down Under. Start of the season. Uncertainty on the horizon. A route that doesn't pose much difficulty. Sufficient ingredients to propose an open race, very open, with possibilities of ending up providing a surprise in the last day. It's hard to point out riders who stand out much from the rest at this moment, and what we have to do is anticipate who started their preseason earlier and arrives with the perfect form for this edition to fight for the victory. A priori, and after the analysis we've done of the route, it's clear that the seconds that can be gained (or lost) in the initial prologue may be key to fighting the final general classification. In addition, the rest of the stages hardly propose large differences, and the ascent to Willunga Hill could be definitively decisive, pending what happens in the stages of Uraidla and Stirling, the only ones that allow proposing something different.
Among the names starting as candidates to seek victory, we find Jhonatan Narváez, Jay Vine, Finn Fisher-Black, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Luke Plapp, Adam Yates or even Matthew Brennan, who has already shown he can hold on during the Willunga stage. The joy of all this is being able to be amazed after these five days of competition.
Following this line of names, perhaps the key candidates for victory, we find other interesting names in this type of race, such as Mauro Schmid, Sam Watson, Ivo Oliveira, or Oliver Bleddyn. An interesting rider profile considering the initial prologue, which would give them life in the general to be able to fight in the remaining days. More risky, but others like Rémi Cavagna, Corbin Strong, Brady Gilmore, Callum Thornley, Kelland O’Brien, Harry Sweeny, Luke Lamperti, or Maikel Zijlaard could also be considered to watch with the stages we have ahead.
I don't want to forget to mention riders like Santiago Buitrago, Anthon Charmig, Andreas Kron, Javier Romo, Ben O’Connor, Laurence Pithie, Marco Brenner or Nicolas Prodhomme, alongside others perhaps less known like Antoine L’Hôte, Edoardo Zambanini, Fabio Van den Bossche, Andrea Raccagni or Patrick Eddy, recently crowned Australian road champion.
Already speaking in first person, I insist on how key the initial prologue can be, and the truth is it makes a lot of sense to see Jhonatan Narváez winning the final general classification again. The truth is that maybe it's the perfect profile; the only drawback might be whether any rider like Luke Plapp, Jay Vine, Sam Watson or Mauro Schmid can get enough advantage to hold out the rest of the days and win. Because riders like Lennert Van Eetvelt, Finn Fisher-Black, Adam Yates or more distant ones, I find it harder to see them recovering enough time in the rest of the stages and taking the victory. I don't want to forget Corbin Strong and, above all, Matthew Brennan without mentioning: I think Willunga is going to be too much for them, but we can't forget their presence.
CANDIDATES FOR STAGE VICTORIES
Speaking of partial triumphs, we have to consider two specific rider profiles, beyond the puncher/finisher who will also fight for the general and already mentioned in the previous section. We must talk, on the one hand, about fast men and, on the other hand, about prologue specialists.
In the sprinter section, we find prominent riders such as Matthew Brennan, Sam Welsford, and Jensen Plowright, a priori the three major names to watch for sprints in this Down Under. After them, other riders appear like Tim Torn Teutenberg, Juan Sebastián Molano, Ethan Vernon, Tobias Lund Andresen, Alberto Dainese, Corbin Strong, Casper van Uden, Stian Fredheim, or Luke Lamperti.
Regarding prologue specialists, riders such as Sam Watson, Maikel Zijlaard, Ivo Oliveira, or Ethan Vernon seem like the main favorites. After them, we must name others like Danny van Poppel, Matthew Brennan, Sam Welsford, Laurence Pithie, Kelland O’Brien, Luke Lamperti or Mauro Schmid, alongside other more time trialist names like Jay Vine, Oliver Bleddyn, Luke Plapp, Rémi Cavagna, or Matteo Sobrero.
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM IL CAPO CED
📂 My 10 capos to follow (200–400 coins)
– Sam Watson (400), Oliver Bleddyn (200), Ivo Oliveira (200), Maikel Zijlaard (400), Jensen Plowright (200), Edoardo Zambanini (400), Andrea Raccagni (200), Andrea Bagioli (200), Tim Torn Teutenberg (400), Laurence Pithie (400)
📝 In the 2025 edition, from the top-10 riders with the most fantasy points, up to three cyclists were below 3% and two others were between 6% and 9%.
📝 In the 2020, 2023, and 2025 editions, users who won this race had at least 1 rider with less than 5% selections.
📝 In the 2024 edition, from the top-10 riders with the most fantasy points, we have two cyclists below 4%.
📂 10 riders who could win you the race (-5% selected)
– Aaron Gate (200), Patrick Eddy (200), Pierre Gautherat (200), Oscar Chamberlain (200), Lewis Bower (200), Brady Gilmore (200), Tom Donnenwirth (200), Haimar Etxeberria (200), Max Walker (200), Kelland O’Brien (200)
📝 In the last 6 editions (since the game's creation), the sprint jersey winner has also been one of the four riders with the most Fantasy points: Peter Sagan (1st in 2018), Patrick Bevin (1st in 2019), Jasper Philipsen (2nd in 2020), Michael Matthews (4th in 2023), Sam Welsford (1st in 2024 and 2025). The importance of finding a good sprinter who is consistent throughout the week will be one of the most important keys when forming your team.
📂 5 sprinters who could win you the race or the sprint jersey:
– Sam Welsford (400), Matthew Brennan (600), Tobias Lund Andresen (600), Ethan Vernon (600), Tim Torn Teutenberg (400)
📝 Riders born from January 1, 2004, onward will fight for the young rider jersey. Last season, for example, Zac Marriage scored 28 points thanks to this classification, equivalent to finishing 2nd and 18th in two stages.
📝 The race will start with a prologue, just like in the 2023 edition. Alberto Bettiol won that year and already scored 60 points thanks to it. Additionally, each stage passed with the GC leadership amounts to 15 more points automatically.