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Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

COURSE ANALYSIS

Schedule: 11:30 - 16:05 CET
TV start: 14:30 CET
More than 190 kilometres and almost 3,200 metres of elevation gain await in this Trofeo Laigueglia, known by some as the “little San Remo”, since among other things it tackles Capo Mele, Capo Berta and the Cipressa in the opening kilometres. From there, the route is clearly divided into two parts. The first features longer climbs, notably Cima Paravenna (6.8 km at 5.7%) and Testico (7.2 km at 4.5%).

The second part is the final circuit, entered with 36 kilometres to go. This circuit features two key climbs: Colla Micheri (2.0 km at 8.6%) and, again, Capo Mele (1.7 km at 3.7%). The riders will complete three laps of this circuit, with the final passage over Capo Mele coming 2.5 kilometres from the finish line. That’s one lap fewer than in other years, but overall the circuit is tougher, with more climbing packed into it.

THE WEATHER

The wind, predominantly from the east, could gradually pick up and, with that, play a bigger role. This could add an extra layer of difficulty to the day, bearing in mind that it would be a headwind on the climbs to Capo Mele and a crosswind on the subsequent run-in to the finish, while it would be more of a tailwind in the Colla Micheri area. Beyond that, neither rain nor temperature should be especially significant a priori.

FAVORITES FOR THE WIN

I’d say that, although the opening section as a whole gains some toughness, cutting one lap off that final Colla Micheri–Capo Mele duo is going to make the day less selective. Add to that the fact there is no single standout favourite, and we get an open race where things can break a number of ways.

What is clear, however, is that if there is one team stronger than the rest, it’s once again UAE Team Emirates. With Kevin Vermaerke, António Morgado and Benoît Cosnefroy they don’t have the out-and-out top favourite, but they undoubtedly have three very reliable bullets to fight for the win. The Frenchman already looks better, and I think he could be their standout rider here.

The French theme continues, because if I had to pick one clear top favourite, it would be Romain Grégoire. Both in terms of his abilities and how the route suits him, for me he is the rider to watch for the victory. Behind him you find others like Christian Scaroni, Gianmarco Garofoli, Antonio Tiberi, Richard Carapaz, Simone Velasco, Diego Ulissi, Alexandre Delettre, Quinten Hermans, Michael Storer, Santiago Buitrago or Marc Hirschi.

Among the riders who benefit most from that reduced difficulty in the final part, we have riders such as Álex Aranburu, Andrea Vendrame and Corbin Strong. All three perform well in hard races, especially the Italian, but they should also have no problem putting their hands in the air from a reduced but not overly thinned-down group. I’m a little reluctant to put Davide Donati in this bracket, but I also wouldn’t lose sight of him; if he hangs on for the sprint he could undoubtedly be the fastest.

Finally, among the riders we can monitor as potential surprise packages we have names such as Davide De Pretto, Thomas Gloag, Matteo Vercher, Gustave Blanc, Alessandro Pinarello, Ludovico Crescioli, Tom Donnenwirth and Stefano Oldani. But my two picks are Simone Gualdi and Andrea Mifsud. Two riders I like a lot and who can make their presence felt. The Maltese rider will surely be involved in some attacking move, while Gualdi has to gradually prove the potential he has in this type of race; he already showed something here with a 10th place last year.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s stat.

Only in 2 of the 62 editions held has there been no Italian presence on the podium. It happened in the 1973 and 2021 seasons.

🌟 Capos to watch.

The years go by and that stat I’ve just mentioned above still seems crazy to me. That’s why for this race I’ll include only Italian riders in this section.

1200; there are no Italian riders at this price.

1000; Antonio Tiberi.

Excellent start to the season with 3rd at Camp de Morvedre, 4th in the GC of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and 2nd in the GC of the UAE Tour, including a stage win.

800; there are no Italian riders at this price.

600; Christian Scaroni.

4th and 2nd in his last two appearances here. A sure bet when we talk about one-day races. This year he has ridden eight classics and achieved five top-5s, including one win and two more podiums.

600; Andrea Vendrame.

Two podiums plus two top-10s in five starts at Trofeo Laigueglia. He has also started the season in great shape, taking four top-10s in seven classics.

400; Simone Velasco.

He has scored points (in Fantasy terms) in four of the five times he has raced here, with 8th place as his best result.

200; Alessandro Pinarello.

He was already 14th last year in this race and has started this year in very good form, finishing 12th in the GC of the Volta ao Algarve. At this price it will be no problem to fit him into your ‘9’.

📂 Riders with -10% who managed to finish T10.

2025: 3

2024: 4

2023: 4 (including 🥇🥈)

2022: 3 (including 🥇)

2021: 2

📂 Of the 15 riders most selected by users, how many won, how many finished on the podium and how many in the T10?

2025: 🥇🥈🥉 4 = (7/10)

2024: 🥇🥈🥉 3 = (6/10)

2023: ✖️✖️🥉 5 = (6/10)

2022: ✖️🥈🥉 5 = (7/10)

2021: 🥇🥈✖️ 3 = (5/10)

Final recommendation.

In this classic, having Italian riders in our teams seems hugely important. Since 2017, every year except 2021, at least four Italian riders have finished in the top-10. The start list includes plenty of talented home riders to keep that stat alive, so I would build the core of the team by loading up on Italian riders, without fear, and then maybe fill in with a foreign star or two.