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Written analysis by Diego Martín (@martinthecaleb) from Le Puncheur

ANALYSIS OF THE WOMEN'S SURF COAST CLASSIC 2026 ROUTE

Wednesday, January 28 - Torquay- Torquay: 136.5 km

• Schedule: 10:30 a.m. - 2:00 p.m. (local time - 9 hours 30' less CET -).
• Broadcast: from 3:00 a.m. on Eurosport - MAX (Madrid UTC+1)

The second edition of the Women's Surf Coast Classic was going to maintain its route. Thus, the cyclists were set to start in the coastal town of Lorne, but due to forest fires and the weather forecast, it has been changed to Torquay. The same town where the race will finish. The route slightly increases its mileage to 136.5 km due to the last-minute variant.

The 10-kilometer climb to Dean Marsh is lost, although the accumulated elevation does not suffer. This may contribute to creating a more open race, although it will depend on how aggressively it is raced. Most of the day runs through rolling terrain, offering less respite than the original. However, dropping the sprinters seems challenging.

The arrival in Torquay is slightly favorable, although we must pay attention to the weather forecast. Another sprint finish is expected by the beach. The last left turn seems wide enough to not pose a problem, though we shouldn’t be too complacent. If a large group arrives, it will be a fast sprint with favorable wind, perhaps an early launch is advisable.

THE WEATHER

A day marked by weather. Forest fires and forecasts have altered the route. Pleasant temperatures between 21 and 22 degrees are expected during the one-day Women's Surf Coast Classic 2026 race. The probability of rain is practically nil. But wind could be a relevant factor. It is expected to blow, in principle, from the south; that is, from the coast inland. Gusts of up to 40 km/h and averages around 20 are anticipated. In the decisive part of the race, the wind could hit from the side, although it is most likely to be quite favorable. We need to be attentive to last-minute forecasts.

FAVORITES FOR VICTORY IN THE WOMEN'S SURF COAST CLASSIC 2026

Preamble

After the Santos Tour Down Under 2026 and its one-day race, sprinters have a new opportunity. The route does not seem too hard nor the finish as to suggest a day for puncheurs, but we must not be complacent. The wind can contribute to breaking plans.

Main Favorite

The New Zealander Ally Wollaston (FDJ United - Suez) is the top favorite for the victory. She did not start in the one-day classic, but her two victories in the Santos Tour Down Under affirm her good form. If she starts in Torquay, she will be the main favorite for the win. The day's elevation doesn't seem to be a problem, and despite the tailwind (if excessive) potentially affecting, she has a great team to position her.

Other Favorites and Contenders

The Swiss Noemi Rüegg (EF Education-Oatly) is one of the standout names at the year's start. The Swiss rider is the WWT leader after repeating her victory in the Tour Down Under overall. Although she is not a pure sprinter, rather a puncheur, she consistently shows comfort in group or mass finishes, as seen in the first two stages of the Down Under and the one-day race. She has been close to winning in a volata several times. She will want to repay her teammates for their great work with a victory.

The third strong contender in the Tour Down Under finishes has been the British Josie Nelson (Picnic PostNL). In some ways, she has been a bit of a revelation, as until now her only victory had been in Normandie Féminin on a mid-mountain stage. Although she was far from the winner in the one-day race, her good work and the element of surprise in the first two stages of Down Under make us believe in her chances for the win.

Other Contenders

The Dutch team SD Worx - Protime has not achieved any victories in the seven international road race days of 2026 so far. None of their four leaders have competed yet, nor are they present in Australia. But that should not be an excuse to leave empty-handed. And only two days remain in Australia. Of the three fast lead-out riders for Lorena Wiebes present, the Dutch Femke Gerritse and the Pole Marta Lach have already been on the podium during the Australian journey. It’s likely that one of them will be chosen, although Barbara Guarischi should always be considered.

Although the Australians Alex Manly (AG Insurance-Soudal) and Ruby Roseman-Gannon (Liv AlUla Jayco), former teammates, are pure sprinters, they are the great local hopes. Manly already finished fourth on Wednesday in the chaotic sprint, why not improve that?

Possible Surprises

The roster of possible surprises includes lead-out riders but former sprinters and some puncheurs. We highlight the Danish Emma Norsgaard Bjerg (Lild-Trek) again, who has adapted so well to her role as lead-out or team support for Balsamo, that it's hard to see her seeking her own chances. She was sixth in Tanunda. Perhaps it's no longer a surprise to label her after her victory last Wednesday. But Maggie Coles-Lyster (Human Powered Health) is returning after her iliac artery surgery, and it wouldn't be too strange if we don't see her reach her peak power outputs yet. Other riders who might have their day at the finish are the Belgian Fien Van Eynde (Fenix-Premier Tech), the Italian Martina Fidanza (Visma | Lease a Bike), or the Italian Sofia Bertizzolo (FDJ United-Suez) - if she doesn't have to position Wollaston -, the British Carys Lloyd (Movistar) or the Polish Dominika Włodarczyk (UAE Team ADQ).