Written analysis by Diego Martín (@martinthecaleb) from Le Puncheur

Preview Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race Women 2026

• Schedule: 12:40 pm - 4:30 pm AEDST - UTC +11 - (2:40 am - 6:30 am CET)

The race remains unchanged (unless local bushfires cause last-minute changes) from the last edition, where the main change was the direction of the central loop. Thus, as in 2025, the peloton will head from Geelong to Barwon Heads - home of Cadel Evans -.

After reaching Torquay, the peloton will return inland to Geelong on roads with numerous hills, although without significant climbs that are long enough to be more decisive than the true icon of the race and the 2010 Geelong World Championship: Challambra Crescent (1.1 km at an average gradient of 9.1%).

Once back in Geelong, riders must complete two laps of the final 21-kilometer circuit around Geelong. As in past editions, it is expected that the race will be decided in the final section between the climb to Challambra Crescent, the second and last pass cresting 9 km from the finish line, and the short but explosive climb up Melville Avenue (after finishing the descent from the hill). Though not usually crucial, the wind can be decisive at the finish on the avenue by the sea.

The end of the race makes a pure volata unlikely. The most probable scenario is a reduced group sprint finish or a few riders. However, a solo victory or a head-to-head battle in a duo is not ruled out if one or two riders manage to break away after Challambra and maintain the tactical duel over the chasing group.

THE WEATHER

A partly cloudy day is expected in Geelong and surroundings with maximum temperatures around 24ºC. The probability of rain is low for the women's Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. However, some models show a low chance of showers at the end of the race. The wind will be present with moderate to light intensity. It is expected to have an average intensity of 10 to 20 km/h during the race with gusts up to 35 km/h.

FAVORITES FOR THE CADEL EVANS GREAT OCEAN ROAD RACE WOMEN 2026

Prelude

With the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race Women 2026, the international journey of the Australian calendar concludes. Once again, the return of the Herald Sun Tour did not materialize, leaving the professional Australian calendar events to the two (stage and one-day) of the Tour Down Under and the two (both one-day) of Cadel Evans.

The fact that no one has repeated victory in the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race Women is positive. Even more so that the winners have been riders of such diverse profiles as stage racers or climbers, classics specialists, puncheurs, sprinters, time trialists, and even domestiques.

With such varied profiles, the range of favorites or contenders might seem unlimited. Although there are one or two characteristic notes in almost all winners. On one hand, top-level cyclists and, on the other or concurrently, cyclists with an early peak of form. We're not in July, and there is still a lot of "winter work" to do.

The most versatile sprinters

We've already said that with the final sequence, a pure volata is unlikely. But also that it's most likely that the winner will be someone able to assert their final rush on Western Beach Road. So we must be very aware of the race's best sprinters, although with a slight filter regarding their ability to overcome the accumulated elevation and, mainly, hills like Challambra.

The main media focus is on New Zealander Ally Wollaston (FDJ United - Suez). In 2025, she already showed here that she was capable of overcoming hills of this nature and winning forcefully in the sprint. Although Swiss rider Chabbey won't be in the FDJ United-Suez squad this time, the best team of 2025 has level riders to try to control the final part and aim for making the race be decided in a large or reduced group with their leader Wollaston.

In Australia, not all can be present, so the second and third rows of sprinters can also take a leadership role. But clearly, they must overcome that final double sequence with Challambra. It is difficult for sprinters like Australian Georgia Barker (Liv AlUla Jayco), Canadian Maggie Coles-Lyster (Human Powered Health), or Italian Martina Fidanza (Visma | Lease a Bike) to have options in this final.

Swiss puncheur Noemi Rüegg (EF Education-Oatly) is another name to consider for any group finish. She demonstrated her great pedal stroke at the Tour Down Under, where she was able to neutralize multiple attempts by UAE Team ADQ riders and then win at the finish line. Because of her ability to overcome hills and short climbs and her speed, Rüegg is one of the top favorites for the women's Cadel Evans Great Ocean Race.

Lastly, we highlight once again one of the sensations of the sprint days in Australia. British rider Josie Nelson (Picnic PostNL) has surprised in the five days of competition in Oceania. We had no references to her as a sprinter, and she has proven to perform well in group finishes.

Her only victory so far was at Normandie Féminin in a mid-mountain stage with elevation. In this sense, with this route, she is a rider to keep in mind if she stays in the leading group after the final sequence.

Other candidates

Undoubtedly there is a team in Australia that can boast of having several solid and versatile options for this finish. Perhaps the only thing missing is a pure sprinter, but Polish rider Dominika Włodarczyk (UAE Team ADQ) is determined to show that mass finishes are also her devotion. As mentioned earlier, UAE Team ADQ couldn't take advantage of their numerical superiority on the queen stage of the Tour Down Under, but they made it clear that Blasi, García, and Magnaldi (or even Ivanchenko) are also in sufficient form to fight for victory.

Polish Włodarczyk should be UAE Team ADQ's most reliable option considering a reduced group sprint finish. But also that she will be more watched than her teammates and that an attack from Paula Blasi or Mavi García on the intermediate roads between Challambra and Melville Avenue following a strong ascent could break the race. Cadel Evans is a race where sometimes tactics and race-reading have triumphed over brute force, and there is always room for surprises.

Another team that can boast and capitalize on having two solid and similar options for victory is UAE Team ADQ. Polish Dominika Włodarczyk was one of the team's standout sensations in the early part of last season, leaving good performances on Australian soil. This year she hasn't faltered, confirming her previous good form. Perhaps she carries the thorn of last year's Geelong finish, having nearly tasted victory. Włodarczyk is a rider who handles climbs well and has a noteworthy explosiveness for this type of classic.

The list of puncheurs to consider is somewhat extensive for the reduced peloton competing on Australian soil. We can highlight riders such as Australian Alex Manly (AG Insurance-Soudal), Canadian Sarah Van Dam (Visma | Lease a Bike), or Australian Ruby Roseman-Gannon (Liv AlUla Jayco).

In a surprising key

Regarding the surprise factor, this could come from some climber-type riders like New Zealander Ella Wyllie (Liv AlUla Jayco), Dutch Nina Buijsman (Human Powered Health), or Australians Amanda Spratt (Lidl-Trek) and Neve Bradbury (Canyon//SRAM zondacrypto).

We must also consider fast riders like Italian Sofia Bertizzolo (FDJ United - Suez), French Margaux Vigié (Visma | Lease a Bike), and versatile or time-trialist riders like Spanish Mireia Benito (AG Insurance - Soudal Team), Belgians Lotte Claes (Fenix-Premier Tech) and Julie van De Velde (AG Insurance - Soudal Team), Canadian Olivia Baril (Movistar), or French Léa Curinier (FDJ United - Suez).