Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and tips from Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced) of Le Puncheur.

Route analysis Cadel Evans Great Ocean Race 2026

• Schedule: 01:10–05:30 CET

Without being excessively difficult overall — it barely exceeds 2,000 metres of elevation gain over just more than 185 kilometres — the route offers an intriguing finale.

The last 70 kilometres concentrate all the tension of the day, with four ascents of Challambra Crescent (1.3 km at 7.8%) that are likely to decide the race. The last of them is crested just 9.5 kilometres from the finish line.

As an added factor, after completing the descent of Challambra, the peloton will have to tackle a 500‑metre rise at 8.5%. This ramp, located 7 kilometres from the finish, could be key to finally splitting the group and avoiding a bunch sprint. If the race is still decided in a sprint, it will be contested on a wide finishing straight, with a slight left‑hand curve.

Ascent of Challambra and subsequent rise

THE WEATHER

Temperatures will be high, although slightly lower than those experienced in the days leading up to the race in Australia. Wind and rain do not appear likely to join the party that closes the opening block of the Oceanian season.

FAVOURITES FOR VICTORY

After analysing the profile and recent editions of this race, it’s clear that there are two likely scenarios: a reduced sprint, or a successful attack by a lone rider or a small group on the final passage of Challambra.

With this in mind, we are looking at riders such as Mauro Schmid, Aaron Gate, Finn Fisher-Black, Edoardo Zambanini, Andrea Bagioli, Santiago Buitrago, Harry Sweeny, Andreas Kron or Sam Watson in a scenario geared towards a small‑group sprint or a late attack. We can also include riders with a slightly more intermediate profile such as Natnael Tesfazion, Corbin Strong, if he is reasonably recovered from the crash he suffered at the Tour Down Under, or Laurence Pithie, who already knows what it’s like to win here.

I would completely rule out riders like Danny van Poppel, Sam Welsford, Alberto Dainese, Tim Torn Teutenberg or Ethan Vernon, but I would have faith in others such as Matthew Brennan or Tobias Lund Andresen, who are possibly the sprinters with the best chances on this course. In fact, given their presence, it is logical to think that many riders will be keen to drop them, and that this will favour a harder race, since otherwise their status as favourites would increase significantly.

Among the possible surprises we can mention riders such as Brady Gilmore, Matteo Sobrero, Anthon Charmig, Pierre Gautherat, Nick Schultz, Haimar Etxeberria, Michael Leonard, Florian Stork or Andrea Raccagni Novero, who already produced a spectacular Down Under.

Personally, I lean a bit more towards a late attack on Challambra, although the favourites will be practically the same as in a reduced sprint, with a few exceptions. Given that the pure sprinters are ruled out here, I see many opportunities for riders such as Mauro Schmid, Aaron Gate, Finn Fisher-Black, Laurence Pithie, with Matthew Brennan and Tobias Lund Andresen waiting with the shotgun loaded in the larger group. Among the outsiders, we’ll place our faith in Andrea Raccagni Novero and Anthon Charmig.

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IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

📝 There will be no riders priced at 1,000 or 1,200 coins, so when putting together your ‘9’ you shouldn’t have any budget issues.

📂 Of the race’s T10, how many had a selection % below 10%?
2020: 5
2023: 4
2024: 6
2025: 2

📝 If there is one race where you can take risks, it’s this one. Make sure you pick 3–4 riders that few users have in their team. If you are premium you’ll be able to see the selection %, and if you’re not, try to guess where things might be heading. As it’s World Tour, I’ll be generous and give you 5 names: Anthon Charmig (200), Pierre Gautherat (200), Harry Sweeny (200), Marco Brenner (200), Andrea Raccagni (200)

📂 Of the T10 most selected riders, how many managed a T10 in the race?

2020: 4
2023: 3
2024: 3
2025: 5

📝 Don’t go crazy with the most selected riders. My recommendation is to only take 3–4 of them; here, just as in the point above, I’m going to give you a few hints: Laurence Pithie (200), Mauro Schmid (400), Finn Fisher-Black (600).

📂 Some data about the winning users:
2023: Chose 5 of the 9 most selected and had only 1 rider below 3%, who happened to be the winner of the race, by the way.
2024: Had 5 of the 9 most selected and 2 below 7%. As a curiosity, Biniam Girmay, who was the most selected by the app (98%), did not score.
2025: Had 5 of the 9 most selected and only 1 below 5%.

📝 Based on these figures, the ideal strategy for this race would be to take 5 riders from the 9 most selected, then 1–2 below 10%, and the rest in the 10–30% selection range.