Preview written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

• Schedule: 12:00–16:15 CET

There are four climbs throughout the day, all too far from the finish to realistically prevent a sprint. The climbs are: Alto de Celin (7.0 km - 4.5%), Alto de Río Chico (2.4 km - 4.6%), Alto de Berja (3.0 km - 4.0%) and Cuesta de Almerimar (1.2 km - 5.3%). The top of the latter comes just over 50 kilometres from the finish.

Profile of the last 30 kilometres

With 31 kilometres to go, the riders will cross the finish line for the first time. In this section through to the finish they have to tackle the rise up to Parador de Hortichuelas with 22 kilometres remaining. It is not a very demanding part of the course, but if the pace has been high and the wind is blowing in the indicated direction, it is a good moment to try something different.

In the final kilometres, which are very twisty, and close to the finish line, there is a key right-hand turn to enter Avenida Rey Juan Carlos I, where the finish will be located.

Profile of the final 3 kilometres. The finish is located at the bottom of the image.

THE WEATHER

The wind speed will drop — drop a lot — for this Sunday’s race. As they approach the finish, the intensity will decrease and, as surprising as it may seem after the previous days, it does not look like it will be an especially decisive factor in the stage. If anyone wants to turn the screw and split the race in the wind, they will need to try from a long way out. On the other hand, neither the temperature nor the rain should play an important role.

FAVOURITES FOR THE WIN

Given the characteristics of the day and the precedents, the answer to what type of rider will fight for victory is straightforward: sprinters. It is a day for fast men; the team’s work in positioning is crucial because in such a twisty finale, if you’re not well placed, you’re lost. The same idea applies to those who want to spring a surprise — they still have a decent opportunity in front of them.

At the top of the favourites list we find Biniam Girmay, Arnaud De Lie, Dylan Groenewegen, Matteo Moschetti and Milan Fretin. These five are undoubtedly the main candidates to take the win, without forgetting of course others like Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Émilien Jeannière, Orluis Aular, Pascal Ackermann or Giovanni Lonardi — a second tier of favourites that shows the level on the start line.

If we move to a third tier, we can mention other riders such as Jenthe Biermans, Paul Penhoët, Iúri Leitão, Emīls Liepiņš, Luca Mozzato, César Macías, Lewis Askey or Enrico Zanoncello. But when talking about surprises, it might be better to mention other names like Marc Brustenga, Paul Hennequin, Jules Hesters or Davide Persico.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

📂 Of the 20 most selected riders, how many managed to score points?

2025: 10
2024: 14
2023: 11
2022: 12
2021: 9

📂 Of the 9 most selected riders, how many managed to score points?
2025: 6
2024: 7
2023: 6
2022: 7
2021: 4

📂 Of the 9 most selected riders, how many finished in the T5?
2025: 4 (winner, 2nd, 4th, 5th)
2024: 4 (winner, 2nd, 4th, 5th)
2023: 4 (all except the winner)
2022: 5 (clean sweep)
2021: 1 (winner)

📂 From the T10, how many had been picked by 10% or fewer of users?
2025: 2
2024: 1
2023: 1 (the winner)
2022: 2
2021: 3

📝 A classic exclusively for sprinters.
Don’t overcomplicate things: pick 6–7 of the 10 most selected riders and then complete your team with several 10% “unicorns”.

📝 This year, in that bracket, we find riders such as Arnaud De Lie, Orluis Aular or Luca Mozzato.

📝 In 4 of the last 6 editions, the winner was making his season debut in this classic.