Analysis by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

• Schedule: 11:45 - 16:35 CET

More than 3,000 metres of elevation gain with various climbs throughout the day: Cote du Pin (9.3 km - 4.6%), Col de la Justice (1.4 km - 4.2%), Val d’Enfer (1.5 km - 10.4%), Cote du Pin (9.3 km - 4.6%), Col de la Justice (1.4 km - 4.2%), Val d’Enfer (1.5 km - 10.5%), Saint-Romain-de-Lerps (7.2 km - 6.9%) and Val d’Enfer (1.5 km - 10.4%). The triple passage of Val d’Enfer (the last one 6 km from the finish) and the ascent of Saint-Romain-de-Lerps will be decisive.

WEATHER

There is a chance of rain, but it is extremely small. On top of that, the wind will ease compared to previous days and, although it may be bothersome in certain phases of the race, it should not be decisive.

FAVOURITES FOR THE WIN

There is a stellar line-up on the start line of this classic, with Paul Seixas, Romain Grégoire, Jan Christen and Mattias Skjelmose as the main favourites on paper, but with other riders of the calibre of Ben Healy, Christian Scaroni, Matteo Jorgenson or Lenny Martínez lurking. Among all these names, my pick is undoubtedly Paul Seixas. In terms of level and current form, he looks like the only rider capable of going clear on the final ascent of Val d’Enfer, something that could earn him a solo victory. It does not, however, look an easy scenario given the strength in depth of the field.

Alongside them, of course, there are other standout riders, but without a doubt António Morgado is the one we really have to keep an eye on. The route might prove a little hard for him, but if there is the slightest doubt and an opportunity, he will be very difficult to beat in a reduced sprint. Around him we find names such as Axel Laurance, Alex Aranburu, Dorian Godon, Benoît Cosnefroy or Fabio Christen.

On the next rung there are more riders capable of delivering on a hard day, such as Marc Hirschi, Quinn Simmons, Jarno Widar, Egan Bernal, Ewen Costiou or Edoardo Zambanini. Even so, I’m going to stick with other profiles: on the one hand, riders I really want to see here, like Pierre-Henry Basset, Jakob Omrzel, Björn Koerdt, Simone Gualdi, Maxime Jarnet or Axel Mariault; but above all, I’m going with Marco Brenner and Thomas Gloag as major candidates to spring a surprise.

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IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s stat

Never in the history of this race (held since 2001) has a rider managed 3 straight T3 finishes.
Romain Grégoire could become the first to do it this year.

🌟 Capos to watch
I’m going to recommend 1 rider for each price range.

1200: Matteo Jorgenson
He’s the only one in this bracket.
It’s his season debut and, in principle, this is terrain that suits him, but we don’t know his form and it’s most likely that his peak will come in the coming months. So 1200 coins may be an excessive risk.

1000: Mattias Skjelmose
3rd, 3rd and 6th in his 3 participations in this race. The route suits him perfectly. Season debut.

800: Romain Grégoire
5th, 2nd and 1st in his last 3 participations here. It’s hard to leave out someone like him, costing only 800 coins and being such a reliable rider in the classics.

600: Christian Scaroni
Same as the previous rider, but in Italian version. A safe bet for one-day races. He comes in good shape and was 5th here last year.

400: Clément Champoussin
Another Astana, yes. But the French rider is racing at home and has taken 3 T6 finishes in 3 of his last 4 participations.

200: Paul Seixas
The man of the moment. The French hope. Only 200 coins. It would be surprising if he isn’t picked by 100% of users.

📂 Riders with -10% who managed to finish T10
2025: 4
2024: 2
2023: 3
2022: 3

📂 Of the 15 riders most selected by users, how many won, how many made the podium and how many finished 4th–10th?
2025: 🥇✖️✖️ 5 (Total 6/10)
2024: 🥇🥈🥉 4 (7/10)
2023: 🥇🥈🥉 4 (7/10)
2022: 🥇🥈✖️ 4 (6/10)

For this race, as you already know, riders’ % have disappeared and it’s information we’ll only have once the race has started. What we do have now are categories without a specific %, which at least allow us to get an idea of which riders are being selected by users.

The “popular vote” has been very accurate in team selection for this race since it entered Fantasy. It seems to be an easy race to read, so I wouldn’t stray too far off the board.

For the first stat I’d look at the riders who are in categories 4 and 5: “seldom picked” and “very risky”.
For the second stat I’d keep an eye on category 1: “safe bet”.

Use this information properly to build your teams.