Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos__) and tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

Schedule: 13:00–17:45 CET
Same profile as last year, with a total of 2,500 metres of climbing. Two ascents on each of the three laps to Rua Parque Forestal (2.3 km at 7.9%) and Enforca Cães (800 m at 7.2%). The final time over Enforca is crested just over five kilometres from the finish. These two climbs have proved sufficient to split the race, but if someone wants to win solo they’ll need to be clearly stronger than the rest.

THE WEATHER
Very slim chances of rain, relatively pleasant temperatures for riding but wind — a lot of wind throughout the day. This will undoubtedly be the factor that shapes the race. In fact, I’d keep an eye on possible cancellations or course reductions.

FAVOURITES FOR THE WIN
With no rider clearly above the rest, we’re looking at a pretty interesting day of racing. On the one hand we can expect riders who will try to surprise and blow the race apart, while on the other there will be riders thinking more about a bunch sprint. On top of that we must add riders who can play both cards, which automatically makes them favourites, such as António Morgado, Alex Aranburu, Fabio Christen or Riley Sheehan, who has already shown at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana the strong form with which he is starting the season.

Let’s start then with the group of riders who will try to break the race. A group featuring names such as Brandon McNulty, Marc Hirschi, Richard Carapaz, Marco Frigo, Javier Romo, Daniel Felipe Martínez, Dylan Teuns or Jarno Widar, who could be one of the pleasant surprises of the day. He’s making his seasonal debut, but the profile suits him well and we could see him shine. If I had to bet on one of these riders to blow the race apart and win solo, it would be McNulty without a doubt.

Alongside them, we have other riders with more of a sprinter’s profile, such as Tim Torn Teutenberg, Sandy Dujardin, Mathieu Kockelmann, Leangel Linares, Nico Denz or Rui Oliveira. It’s true there aren’t many pure sprinters here, and that makes a more “chaotic” finale likely.

We must not forget riders like Lennard Kämna, Felix Großschartner, Carlos Canal, Max Poole or Yannis Voisard; but above all it’s worth keeping an eye on younger riders or those more in the “outsider” mould, such as Alex Molenaar, Xabier Berasategi, Lorenzo Finn, Haimar Etxeberria, Diego Pescador, Pau Martí or Matys Grisel.

Personally, I think the most likely outcome is a small group fighting for the win, and it makes a lot of sense that António Morgado could repeat his victory. Even so, it will be important to monitor last‑minute changes to the start list, because at the time of writing there are still several teams yet to confirm.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY
📂 Of the 20 most-picked riders, how many managed to score points?
2025: 13
2024: 12

📂 Of the 9 most-picked riders, how many managed to score points?
2025: 7
2024: 6

📂 Of the 9 most-picked riders, how many finished in the T5?
2025: 3 (winner and the rest of the podium)
2024: 2 (winner and 5th)

📂 From the T10, how many had been picked by 10% or fewer of users?
2025: 2
2024: 2

2024:
🥇Evenepoel: season debut
🥈Braet: 1 stage T3 at Volta Com. Valenciana
🥉Velasco: season debut
4️⃣ Boven: 1 T3 + 2 T10 in stages at the Tour Down Under
5️⃣ Mayrhofer: 1 T3 + 1 T10 in Challenge Mallorca classics

2025:
🥇Morgado: 1 W + 2 T3 + 1 T10 in Castellón, Valencia and Mallorca classics
🥈Magnier: 1 W + 1 T3 in stages of Étoile de Bessèges
🥉Vacek: no T10
4️⃣ Watson: 2 T10 in stages at the Tour Down Under
5️⃣ Costa: no T10

📂 My 10 capos to watch (200–400 coins):
Morgado (200), Voisard (200), Sheehan (200), Dujardin (200), Grisel (200), Kockelmann (200), F. Christen (400), Berasategi (200), Berrade (200), Molenaar (200)