Race analysis, favourites, and predictions for Giro d'Italia 2025

The first men's Grand Tour of the year is here. As every year, the Giro d’Italia takes over from the spring classics and becomes the center of attention for cycling fans around the world. Starting this coming Friday and lasting for three weeks, the battle for the famous maglia rosa (pink jersey) promises thrilling duels and a spectacular show in every sense.

 
Route

The first three of the 21 stages of this Giro will take place in Albania. The course features two individual time trials (stages 2 and 10) and six likely sprint finishes (stages 4, 5, 6, 12, 18, and 21). In addition, the race includes eight medium mountain stages (stages 1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, and 17), with stage 9 standing out due to its nearly 30 km of gravel, and stage 17 featuring the Passo del Mortirolo (12.7 km at 7.6%).

The remaining five stages are for pure climbers, mostly concentrated in the final week (stages 7, 15, 16, 19, and 20). Among these, stage 20 stands out, including the Colle delle Finestre (18.4 km at 9.2%), with the final 8 km on gravel. It has been designated the Cima Coppi (the highest point of the Giro) for this year. However, heavy snowfall in the region in recent days may jeopardize the riders’ passage over this formidable climb.

Additionally, each road stage will feature an intermediate sprint with time bonuses of 6, 4, and 2 seconds, which could play an interesting strategic role.

 
Favorites

Primož Roglič (1200) and Juan Ayuso (1200) start as the two main favorites for the general classification, also expected to be contested by riders such as Adam Yates (1200), Mikel Landa (1000), Richard Carapaz (800), Giulio Ciccone (800), Antonio Tiberi (800), Thomas Pidcock (800), Derek Gee (800), Jai Hindley (800), Simon Yates (800), Thymen Arensman (800), David Gaudu (600), Egan Bernal (600), Filippo Zana (400), and Lorenzo Fortunato (400).

For the maglia ciclamino and sprint finishes, the top contenders on paper include Wout Van Aert (1200), Mads Pedersen (1200), Olav Kooij (1000), Kaden Groves (1000), Sam Bennett (600), Gerben Thijssen (400), Milan Fretin (400), and Matteo Moschetti (400).

 
Photo: © Giro d’Italia