Race analysis, favourites, and predictions for Il Lombardia 2025

This Saturday marks the running of Il Lombardia, the last of the five Monuments of the year and the race where many cyclists end their season. That’s the case for Tadej Pogačar (1200), who will close out his brilliant 2025 campaign in the “Classic of the Falling Leaves.”

This season, Pogačar has won the UAE Tour, Strade Bianche, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Flèche Wallonne, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, Critérium du Dauphiné, Tour de France, the World Road Championships, the European Road Championships, and the Tre Valli Varesine last Tuesday.

Moreover, Il Lombardia is one of the Slovenian’s favorite races — he has won the last four editions. Therefore, Pogačar will look to crown a campaign that is already the most successful ever achieved by any cyclist.

 
Route

Il Lombardia 2025 features a 238 km route between Como and Bergamo with 7 categorized climbs, including the traditional Madonna del Ghisallo (8.8 km at 3.9%) early in the race. The Passo della Crocetta (11.7 km at 5.8%) and especially the Passo di Gandia (9.3 km at 7.1%), cresting 28 km from the finish, are expected to be decisive.

 
Favorites

Anything other than a victory by Tadej Pogačar (1200) would be a huge surprise. Remco Evenepoel (1200) should be the Slovenian’s main rival, followed by riders like Thomas Pidcock (800), Ben O’Connor (1000), Richard Carapaz (1000), Alexandr Vlasov (800), Sepp Kuss (600), Paul Seixas (200), and Pogačar’s teammates Jay Vine (800) and Adam Yates (800).

It’s worth noting that many teams have yet to confirm their lineups, and more top riders are expected to take part in the race.

 
Photo: © Il Lombardia