Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

• Schedule: 10:10 - 16:35 CET
• TV start: 09:45 CET

Milano–Sanremo 2026 keeps its essence. From Pavia, 297 kilometers of pure excitement will take the peloton to the iconic finish line in San Remo. A journey from the heart of Lombardy to the Ligurian coast, a route that marks the start of the spring classics season.

The first 120 kilometers take place on flat terrain, where the break of the day will form and the peloton will roll along without major shocks. The calm is broken at kilometer 130: shortly before reaching Rossiglione, the road begins to rise little by little. The Passo del Turchino comes into play. Its 2.4 kilometers at 4.8% represent the first change in the race, taking the riders to the highest point of the day. In truth we can say the climb is much longer, almost 24 kilometers, but with a meager 1.5% average gradient.

Once over the top of the Turchino, the descent becomes a key moment. Its technical and winding 10-kilometer downhill can be lethal if splits occur. From here on, Milano–Sanremo gradually becomes a different race.

The menu continues with the Capos: Capo Mele (1.8 km at 3.4%), Capo Cervo (2.1 km at 2.5%) and Capo Berta (2 km at 6.3%). Three climbs that, although not hard, wear riders down and mark the entry into the final stretch of the day.

And then we reach the Cipressa (5.6 km at 4.1%). This is the key. It’s the first big real selection. A climb that puts everyone in their place and that, with its summit 21.5 kilometers from the finish, becomes the prelude to the final moves. A climb that has gained importance at this point in the race and where both the race and the spectacle place high expectations. Pay attention, because if you start it out of position, everything gets complicated if you want to raise the pace.

Only one more obstacle remains: the Poggio di San Remo (3.6 km at 3.7%). A climb where the speed is dizzying. Its hairpins make it hard to launch an attack in the first part, but after passing the Madonna della Guardia and reaching its toughest section, the perfect straight appears to make a move, with ramps that reach almost 7%.

From the top, the final descent is madness. A fast, technical and decisive downhill that will line out the group on the way to Via Roma. Heart-stopping minutes to find out the first Monument winner of the year.

THE WEATHER

It seems the wind wants to be a factor in the finale. Very changeable in recent days, it is now expected to be unfavorable in the final kilometers. A situation that benefits the sprinters and Tadej Pogačar’s rivals, and is unfavorable for long-range attacks. Specifically, this wind direction makes things hardest on the Cipressa and the terrain after it; later on the Poggio it will be more of a crosswind on the section after the hairpins.

In any case, stay tuned, because this can still change right up until the decisive moment.

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FAVORITES FOR THE WIN

Tadej Pogačar vs Mathieu van der Poel. The duel that keeps repeating itself over and over. It’s true that the Slovenian has an increasingly stronger team around him, but the terrain is always the same. He’s running out of ideas and yet the opportunities remain. Capo Berta? Cipressa? The Poggio? The feeling is that if Pogačar doesn’t manage to break the race before the Poggio, it’s almost impossible to get rid of Van der Poel in that final section. A tough task, especially with the wind the way it is at the moment. In that sense, I see Mathieu as a bit more of a favorite than Tadej: he just has to let others do the work, and that’s a huge advantage.

The other contenders.

And if it’s not them? Who can win? The names of Wout van Aert, Filippo Ganna or even Mads Pedersen appear, the latter a late entry after recovering from the physical problems he’d been carrying since his crash. Of these, the one I trust most is the Italian, who could have a chance if he manages to finish the Poggio descent at the front and tries a move while the rest look at each other. As for Van Aert and Pedersen, the logical thing is that they’ll try to rely on their sprint, but I find it a bit hard to picture them there.

I would like to include Jasper Philipsen and Tom Pidcock here, because they deserve it. The Belgian has already won here and the current wind suits him; we can’t rule him out at all. For his part, the Briton is a dangerous element on the Poggio descent. His task seems simple but is hard to execute: crest in front and launch himself downhill.

The outsiders.

The group grows, the possibilities shrink dramatically. Here we find riders like Isaac del Toro, Romain Grégoire, Christophe Laporte or again Romain Grégoire if the race blows apart from far out. But the feeling is that they’re missing something to then be able to finish it off, although it’s true that Laporte could be the fastest in a small group and Del Toro might have an ace up his sleeve if he doesn’t completely empty himself working for Pogačar.

That said, I trust more in names like Tobias Lund Andresen, Biniam Girmay or Paul Magnier if the win ultimately comes down to a sprint. In that case their chances are much higher than if they are fighting for victory directly against the big favorites.

The surprises.

Talking about surprises in a Monument is a very tricky business. But sometimes it happens. Riders like Luke Lamperti, Andrea Vendrame, Matej Mohorič, Julian Alaphilippe, Mauro Schmid or Jonas Abrahamsen could have a chance. Or even fast men like Søren Wærenskjold, Paul Lapeira or Matteo Trentin, depending on the scenario. But personally I’m going to go with two riders who tend to appear in this race: Jasper Stuyven and Søren Kragh Andersen. Two riders who rarely fail and whom I can definitely imagine pulling off an enormous surprise.

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IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s stats.

• In the 21st century, 16 of the 25 winners came from racing Tirreno–Adriatico beforehand.
• In the history of Fantasy, never has a 200-coin rider managed to get a T10 in this race.
• Despite having finished 5th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd, Tadej Pogačar has never managed to make the ‘ideal 9’ in Fantasy.

🌟 Capos to watch.

1200; Tadej Pogačar, Matteo Jorgenson

1000; Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert

800; Tobias Lund Andresen, Romain Grégoire

600; Filippo Ganna, Andrea Vendrame, Mauro Schmid

400; Paul Lapeira, Christophe Laporte, Magnus Cort, Laurence Pithie

200; Matej Mohorič, Andrea Bagioli, Jon Barrenetxea, Rick Pluimers, Quentin Pacher

📂 Riders with -10% who managed to be T10.

2025: 5 (3 of them < 1%)

2024: 3 (including 🥇🥈)

2023: 1 (who was 🥈)

2022: 3

2021: 6 (including 🥇🥈)

2020: 5 (including 🥉)

2019: 4 (including 🥈🥉)

📂 200-coin riders who managed to be T10.

2025: 0

2024: 0

2023: 0

2022: 0

2021: 0

2020: 0

2019: 0

📂 Popular vote from users in the app (15 most selected riders).

7 editions played in Fantasy (since 2019)

Got the 🥇 right: 4/7

Got the 🥈 right: 3/7

Got the 🥉 right: 5/7

Got the rest of the T10 right: 24/49