Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced) from Le Puncheur.

ROUTE ANALYSIS

• Schedule: 07:50–12:20 CET

The Muscat Classic racks up 2,100 metres of elevation gain. The race is really decided on a final 60-kilometre loop: Hamriyah (1 km at 8.6%), Al Jissah (1.1 km at 8.9%), Wadi Al Kabir (2.2 km at 6.3%) and then, again, the Hamriyah and Al Jissah combo are linked together. It’s a textbook race scenario: the bunch will reach the final climb of Al Jissah fairly compact and everything will be decided there, because the summit comes just 5 kilometres from the finish. It’s the perfect place for an attack by a puncheur, but he has to be clearly superior if he wants to win thanks to the gap he opens on those 9% ramps. The group of favourites, already much reduced over the top, will instead try to set up a reduced sprint. The latter is the most common scenario in the short history of a race that is making its debut on the .Pro calendar.

THE WEATHER

The wind, quite light and blowing east/southwest, is the most notable feature of a day that will really be marked by high temperatures.

FAVOURITES FOR THE WIN

As discussed in the route analysis, there are two types of riders who can fight for the win: on the one hand, more puncheur-type riders who should attack on the final ascent; on the other, riders with a clearer sprinter profile, although obviously the purest sprinters are almost ruled out here.

Among the puncheurs, riders like Adam Yates, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Christian Scaroni, Junior Lecerf, Diego Ulissi and Luke Plapp stand out – names that fit perfectly with that late-attack scenario. We can also include others like Mauro Schmid, Alberto Bettiol, Stefano Oldani, Henok Mulubrhan, Roger Adrià, Natnael Tesfatsion, Rasmus Tiller or Vincenzo Albanese, riders who could feature in practically any scenario.

On the other side, the fast men, with standout names such as Stanisław Aniołkowski, Émilien Jeannière, Erlend Blikra, Amaury Capiot, Iván García Cortina, Juan Sebastián Molano, Bryan Coquard, Axel Zingle or Rick Pluimers, who already knows what it is to win here. We could add others like Gerben Thijssen, Fernando Gaviria or Jensen Plowright into this equation, but I don’t really see them fighting for much here. Meanwhile, other lesser-known riders like Steffen De Schuyteneer, Sente Sentjens, Emmanuel Houcou or Thibaud Gruel have a great opportunity to fight for the win.

Finally, the riders who can spring a surprise. Here, along with the two sprinters mentioned in the previous section, we can include others like Simone Gualdi, Rune Herregodts, Jan Castellon, Martin Tjøtta, Finlay Pickering or Lukas Nerurkar. Given that the Tour of Oman starts the following day and many will have that race more in mind, this is a good opportunity for upsets.

Personally, I think the most complicated scenario is the one we saw in 2024, with Finn Fisher-Black attacking unopposed on the final climb. I’d lean more towards a rider who can hang on in the bunch and take the win in a sprint, or towards riders who can handle both scenarios.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

2024

🥇 Fisher-Black: 3rd GC, 3rd stage (AlUla Tour)
🥈 Lamperti: 2nd Classic (Challenge Mallorca)
🥉 Capiot: 10th Classic (Valencia)

2025
🥇 Pluimers: season debut
🥈 Biermans: 10th Classic (Castellón)
🥉 Mulubrhan: no T10 in 8 days of racing

📝 Race with only 3 years of history (including this one). In the app it will be the 1st edition in which we can play, as this year it has become a .Pro category race (formerly .1).

📝 It’s a classic that keeps the same route as last year, so expect a race for sprinters who can cope well with that final 1.1 km climb at 9.3%, 5 km from the finish.

📝 There won’t be any budget problems, so you can go with whoever you consider the best without needing to take as many risks as in other classics.