Analysis by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

• Schedule: 11:15 – 15:50 CET

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 2026 once again raises the curtain on Opening Weekend, that exact point in the calendar where cycling changes temperature. There are 208 kilometres ahead which, without yet reaching the brutality of April, already force you to race with killer instinct, endurance, and brains. The start from Ghent gives way to a relatively controlled first half, with few sectors and climbs that serve more to position and wear riders down than to truly break the race.

The race really starts to take shape from 58 kilometres to go. From there until the final 10 km, you get the sequence that defines the day: cobbled sectors, bergs, and mixed sections, all in quick succession. Ideal terrain to make a move and split the race if you want to avoid a relatively large-group sprint.

The 2026 edition makes this section even harder in its final part, before the last barrage, with the addition of Tenbosse (500 m at 6%, 26 km from the finish) and Parkeberg (800 m at 5%, 23 km out). Two climbs that come when the fatigue is already heavy and that complicate any organised chase.

And the obvious has a proper name. The Muur van Geraardsbergen, crested 15.5 kilometres from the finish, is once again the big turning point. 1.1 km at 7.3%, with ramps close to 20%, a narrow road and an always ferocious approach. Here the riders who can hang on are separated from those who cannot, and any positioning mistake is paid dearly. It smells of history on a climb that we miss more and more every year.

After the Muur comes the last serious test: the Bosberg, 11.5 km from the finish line. Less selective, but key to consolidating gaps or allowing a final counter. If someone crests with an advantage, by this point we’ll already have a good idea whether they are going to be victorious at the finish.

From there, a fast run-in towards Ninove, with a cleaner and less technical finale than in other editions. If a group arrives, it will be small; if a lone rider arrives, it will be after an Omloop that once again rewards anticipation and well-managed attrition.

[caption id="attachment_22412" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]Previa Omloop Nieuwsblad 2026 | Tramo final[/caption]

Climbs:

#	Climb	Altitude (m)	Length	Average gradient	Race km
1	Leberg	92	0.9 km	3.6 %	61.4
2	Eikenberg	81	1.2 km	5.0 %	74.6
3	Leberg	92	0.9 km	3.7 %	133.3
4	Eikenberg	81	1.2 km	5.0 %	146.5
5	Wolvenberg	63	0.5 km	6.2 %	150.5
6	Molenberg	54	0.4 km	7.1 %	163.1
7	Leberg	92	0.9 km	3.7 %	170.5
8	Berendries	90	0.9 km	6.7 %	174.6
9	Tenbosse	67	0.5 km	6.0 %	182.0
10	Parikeberg	83	0.8 km	4.9 %	185.2
11	Muur de Geraardsbergen	104	1.1 km	7.3 %	192.3
12	Bosberg	102	0.9 km	6.3 %	196.3

Cobbled sectors (note mixed sections):

#	Sector	Length	Race km
1	Paddestraat	1,500 m	43.4
2	Haaghoek	1,900 m	60.3
3	Eikenberg	1,200 m	74.6
4	Lange Munte	2,500 m	115.6
5	Haaghoek	1,900 m	132.2
6	Eikenberg	1,200 m	146.5
7	Holleweg	600 m	148.6
8	Kerkgate	1,400 m	155.6
9	Jagerij	800 m	158.1
10	Molenberg	400 m	163.1
11	Haaghoek	1,900 m	169.4
12	Muur	800 m	192.3
13	Bosberg	400 m	196.3

THE WEATHER

A perfect day to enjoy racing. Temperature around ten degrees, wind with quite a bit of intensity from the south/southwest and very slight chances of rain, but still there. This gives us an ideal scenario to enjoy the first cobbled classic of the season.

FAVOURITES FOR THE WIN

Mathieu van der Poel, that’s the name. He makes his seasonal debut after once again putting on a show in cyclocross, but the question is never whether he is in form, but where he decides to attack. He starts as the big favourite and that, far from negatively affecting the race, usually means movement and ambition. It’s a race in which it’s not easy to open gaps and where the big names tend to hide until Geraardsbergen, but Alpecin–Deceuninck have a clear advantage: Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves allow Van der Poel to attack without fear. If he goes, perfect. If not, the sprint is still a winning card. In that context, it’s easy to picture him racing with no fear and tightening the race when the time comes.

Behind him, the field of favourites is huge, which complicates any attacking scenario. Team Visma | Lease a Bike, who are not going through their best moment financially, cannot present themselves as Alpecin’s direct rival, but on names they compete at the very highest level. Christophe Laporte arrives in good shape and can adapt to any script, while Matthew Brennan offers an option in a sprint. The absence due to illness of Wout van Aert reduces their attacking capacity, but it also pushes the team towards more conservative approaches, and that doesn’t necessarily have to be worse in terms of results.

There are just too many teams with an interest in keeping the race alive until the end. Arnaud De Lie is probably the rider who fits this route best: he climbs well and, above all, he sprints well. Around him you find names like Biniam Girmay, Søren Wærenskjold, Ben Turner, Mathias Vacek or Paul Magnier, all with teams willing to control and neutralise long-range attacks. Too many people interested in making sure nothing decisive happens before the Muur. Without a doubt, among these, the standout is the Frenchman who has been putting together some spectacular months.

That does not mean there are no riders with room to tear up the script. Tim Wellens comes in great shape and has the perfect profile to harden the race on the climbs. Tom Pidcock, even if he is not the ideal archetype for this race, is in such form that he can defy any logic. Here we can obviously also find others such as Matej Mohorič, Kasper Asgreen, Valentin Madouas, Stefan Küng, Florian Veermersch, Toms Skujins… riders with engine, experience and enough freedom to try something when the peloton starts looking at each other too much. Here I would like to single out one name: Jonas Abrahamsen. He makes his debut, yes. But it’s clear his preparation is impeccable, he has shown that in terms of attributes he can be a rider made for this terrain, and tomorrow he can prove it on his first race day of 2026.

We also can’t forget riders such as Dylan van Baarle, Laurence Pithie, Aaron Gate, Luke Lamperti, Magnus Sheffield, Lukáš Kubiš, Anthony Turgis, Matteo Trentin, Iván García Cortina or Fred Wright, but I prefer to go with others for a surprise: Per Strand Hagenes, Vlad Van Mechelen, Riley Sheehan, Matyáš Kopecký, Jenno Berckmoes, but above all Bastien Tronchon and Albert Withen Philipsen; they will be the ones I keep a very close eye on on the day.

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IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

💥 Il capo’s stat

The last 8 winners of this race had not participated, finished or achieved a T10 in the edition immediately prior to their victory.

🌟 Capos to watch
I’m going to recommend 1 rider for each price range.

1200: There is no one worth that many coins.

1000: Mathieu van der Poel
No surprises here. He’s making his seasonal debut and his debut in this race, where he will surely want to add it to his cobbled palmarès.

800: Paul Magnier
He could become the 1st Frenchman in history to win this race.
He has another challenge as well: being the first rider since 2017–18 to take 2 consecutive podiums. The last one was Sep Vanmarcke.

600: Mathias Vacek
He will be the leader of Lidl-Trek in the absence of Mads Pedersen. Really looking forward to seeing him in that role and on the pavé.

400: Christophe Laporte
Leader of Visma after the last-minute withdrawal of Wout van Aert. For this price he is one of the riders who can give you the best value in this race. Whether in a sprint scenario or in a broken-race scenario, he can be up there and get a good result.

200: Nils Politt
3 T10 in his last 5 participations here, including that 2nd place he achieved in the sprint vs. Jan Tratnik. A rider who, like Christophe Laporte, costs few coins for the points he can give you.

📂 Riders with -10% who managed a T10.
2025: 8 (including the winner)
2024: 2
2023: 4
2022: 3
2021: 3
2020: 4 (including the winner)
2019: 3

📂 Of the 15 riders most selected by users, how many won, how many made the podium and how many finished between 4th and 10th?
2025: ✖️🥈🥉 0 (Total 2/10)
2024: 🥇🥈🥉 4 (7/10)
2023: 🥇🥈🥉 2 (5/10)
2022: 🥇🥈✖️ 3 (5/10)
2021: ✖️✖️🥉 3 (4/10)
2020: ✖️🥈✖️ 1 (2/10)
2019: ✖️🥈🥉 3 (5/10)

For this race, as you already know, the riders’ % have disappeared and it’s information we will only know once the race has started. What we do have now are categories without a specific %, which at least lets us get an idea of which riders are being selected by users.

For the first stat I would look at the riders who are in categories 4 and 5: “little selected” and “very risky”.
For the second stat I would keep an eye on category 1: “safe bet”.

Use this information properly to build your teams.