Written analysis by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced) from Le Puncheur.

ROUTE ANALYSIS

Date	Day	Stage	Km
27/01	Tuesday	Stage 1	158
28/01	Wednesday	Stage 2	152
29/01	Wednesday	Stage 3	142.1
30/01	Thursday	Stage 4	184
31/01	Friday	Stage 5	163.9

STAGE 1 - Sprint finish.

• Schedule: 12:45 - 16:15. GMT+3 (10:45 - 14:15 CET)

The "camelodrome" will be the first setting of this ALuLa Tour. A day for sprinters, always mindful of the wind. As you can see in the final details below, it is not a particularly demanding finish, except for two brief sections that may be exaggerated by the GPS.

STAGE 2 - Sprint finish.

• Schedule: 12:50 - 16:15. GMT+3 (10:50 - 14:15 CET)

Once again, a stage for sprinters, with not much to comment on regarding the route. The wind, as usual, is possibly the only extra factor we can encounter in these kinds of days. The finish, quite chaotic and with tight turns, could lead to a lot of nervousness and some crashes.

STAGE 3 - Mid-mountain/Important day for the general classification

• Schedule: 15:55 - 16:15. GMT+3 (13:55 - 14:15 CET)

There's not much positive elevation, just 1400, but indeed we have a clear change in the route. Especially at the end, with a climb that can already create differences and favorites with different characteristics. Eight kilometers, irregular, but holding intensity in the final section, enough for us to see which riders will contest the overall victory.

STAGE 4 - Sprint stage

• Schedule: 11:55 - 16:15. GMT+3 (09:55 - 14:15 CET)

A flat stage, little to report, yet still the third with the most positive elevation, just over 1000 meters. Let's not conjure up calculations, because, as always, if the wind doesn't want, a sprint is unavoidable. The last kilometers this time are indeed a long straight, perfect for a mass sprint.

STAGE 5 - General classification stage

• Schedule: 12:40 - 16:30. GMT+3 (10:40 - 14:30 CET)

A key stage for the general classification, with the ascent to Harrat Uwayrid (2.8 km – 12.5%), peaking just 8 kilometers before the finish line. A climb seen as an absolute wall. After cresting, if the wind is unfavorable, there is still a chance for some rider to reclaim terrain before the finish.

WEATHER

Keeping an eye on the wind, which is undoubtedly the big meteorological attraction we find in the "sands" season. The climate, predictably, will be warm and the chances of seeing rain are almost nonexistent.

FAVORITES FOR THE GENERAL CLASSIFICATION

After analyzing the profile, it should be clear that whoever wins this AlUla must be a rider capable of not losing time in the echelons, if there are any, staying at the front in stage 3, and finally being the strongest in the last day. It would be surprising if whoever doesn't win the last stage doesn't win the overall, given that they don't arrive with much time lost, of course.

With this in mind, we take a look at the startlist to identify the major favorites for the overall victory: Jan Christen, Kevin Vermaerke, Paul Double, and Alan Hatherly. Two from UAE and two from Jayco. The former always present, and the latter racing at their sponsor's home, obliged to fight for stage victories and a good position in the overall. Along with them, perhaps Eddie Dunbar is the fifth in the mix.

The truth is that after these riders there appears a pretty large group, with hardly anyone standing out. Names that do not inspire total confidence like Sergio Higuita, Mauri Vansevenant, or Alberto Bettiol, along with other riders who, despite being less known, have a great opportunity, such as Afonso Eulálio, Joris Delbove, Henok Mulubrhan, Yannis Voisard, Igor Arrieta, Rainer Kepplinger, Nahom Zeray, Gianmarco Garofoli, Jan Castellón, or Nicolas Vinokourov.

We must not forget the young riders, who here have a good chance to shine. Keen to see riders like Bjorn Koerdt, Daan Dijkman, Jamie Meehan, or Liam O’Brien, who might be the man to lead Lidl-Trek in the overall.

CANDIDATES FOR STAGE WINS

We must consider that here we primarily have two types of riders: those who will fight for the overall and stages 3 and 5, and the sprinters. We don't have a different profile capable of shining, unless we find ourselves with a day full of echelons and more rouleur-like riders, but slower ones, like Jakob Söderqvist, Yevgeni Fedorov, Laurenz Rex, Dries De Bondt, or Mathieu Burgadeau.

From there, considering we have already mentioned the general contenders, it's time to talk about the sprinters. A group with a clear leader: Jonathan Milan, the absolute reference to claim the three victories. After him, others like Matteo Malucelli, Milan Fretin, Matteo Moschetti, Phil Bauhaus, Jasson Tesson, Pascal Ackermann, Fernando Gaviria, Emils Liepiņš, Hugo Page, Riley Pickrell, Warre Vangheluwe, Lorenzo Manzin, Andrea D’Amato, Fabio Jakobsen, Dillon Corkery, alongside younger ones like Davide Stella, Seth Dunwoody, Daniel Škerl, or Bruno Kessler.

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IL CAPO CED'S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

📝 We have no Fantasy records of this race. The last 2 editions were categorized as .1, and this year it will be regarded as .Pro for the first time.

📂 My 10 capos to follow (200–400 coins)
Milan Fretin (400), Matteo Moschetti (200), Matteo Malucelli (400), Pascal Ackermann (400), Kevin Vermaerke (200), Paul Double (400), Afonso Eulálio (200), Rainer Kepplinger (200), Yannis Voisard (200), Jakob Söderqvist (200)

📝 Seeing my list of capos, one realizes that most of the protagonists in this race will have a very low price, so putting together our team will not be a difficult task at all.

📝 Given the route presented, your team should be a combination of pure sprinters + climbers who will fight for the general classification. In my opinion, 5+4 would be a good tactic, but a strategy with 4 sprinters + 5 GC men can also be valid.

📝 The points earned by the climbers in the general classification, along with those earned in stages 3 and 5, will be as important as the points earned by the sprinters in stages 1, 2, and 4, plus their secondary classification of the points jersey.

📝 For the young rider jersey, it will be for the riders born from January 1, 2001 onwards, which opens up the classification much more in comparison to the previous race, the Tour Down Under.
You must take into account that the first 2 stages will be sprint finishes, and these types of riders will already earn you points for that classification.

📂 My 10 recommended riders for this jersey (always talking from a fantasy perspective, of course) would be:
Christen, Fretin, Eulálio, Page, Söderqvist, Garofoli, Le Berre, Koerdt, Arrieta, Zeray.