ANALYSIS OF THE SANTOS TOUR DOWN UNDER ROUTE - WOMEN'S ONE DAY RACE 2026

Article written by Diego Martín de Le Puncheur([@MartinTheCaleb]https://x.com/MartinTheCaleb)

Wednesday, January 21 - Tanunda - Tanunda: 94.2 km

• Schedule: 3:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. (local time - 9 hours 30' less CET -).
• Broadcast: from 5:50 a.m. on Eurosport - MAX (Madrid UTC+1)

The Santos Tour Down Under - Women's One Day Race, formerly known as Schwalbe Classic, reaches its fourth edition. The name and the start and finish location change, but not the concept. A day for sprinters. On this occasion, the route follows the style of criterium/criterium races.

The cyclists will face 12 laps of a 7.4-kilometer circuit without excessive orographic difficulties. They will accumulate about 650 meters of elevation in a day of just 94.2 kilometers. Anything other than a mass sprint would be a surprise. The double right turn at 1.3 km will be the last opportunity to break the control or to unsettle some lead sprinters.

THE WEATHER

Warm temperatures are expected, though not extreme. Temperatures between 26 and 30 degrees are anticipated during the Santos Women's Tour Down Under one-day race. The likelihood of rain is almost nil. The wind won't be too strong, with gusts up to 35 km/h and averages around 18. We don't expect it to have a significant impact.

FAVORITES FOR VICTORY IN THE SANTOS TOUR DOWN UNDER - WOMEN'S ONE DAY RACE 2026

Preamble

With the Santos Tour Down Under - Women's One Day Race 2026, sprinters and criterium specialists have a new opportunity. Although this one-day race is considerably longer than the typical Australian criterium, the circuit route is not far from these. For this reason, we might see some regulars from these parts vying for position in the final moments.

The first two stages of the Santos Tour Down Under have left us with a great dominant in speed and have also significantly narrowed down the list of candidates for the Tanunda race, as a result of crashes and illnesses.

The Great Favorite

There is no doubt that New Zealander Ally Wollaston (FDJ United - Suez) is the top favorite for the win. Her two wins in the Santos Tour Down Under confirm her good form and should play mentally in her favor.

How to beat the New Zealander? In the two sprints of the Santos Tour Down Under Women's, Wollaston has shown greater power in the last 150-200 meters. Her team was also noteworthy. Although she didn't have any help in the final meters in the second stage, in Willunga her teammates (Le Net on the home straight) tried to position her after the little chaos of the final chase.

The FDJ United - Suez train or launch doesn't seem the best. It is true that most of the best sprinters are missing. But there are several teams that seem to have better lines for a finish in volata.

Other Favorites and Contenders

The other big name in Australia is the Swiss Noemi Rüegg (EF Education-Oatly). The Swiss rider leads the WWT after repeating her victory in the overall Tour Down Under. On the final day, she was sublime. She defended herself against a UAE Team ADQ in superiority and imposed her final rush. Although she is not a sprinter, but rather a puncheur, the Swiss rider has such power in short efforts that she dares to challenge in group or mass finishes as we saw in the first two stages of Down Under. She will want to turn around the head-to-head score against Wollaston, although it won’t be an easy task.

The third most reinforced rider in the finishes of the Tour Down Under has been British Josie Nelson (Picnic PostNL). Her only victory to date was in Normandie Féminin on a mid-mountain day with elevation. However, after her good performance in the first two stages of Down Under, she is a candidate for victory.

Other Contenders

The all-powerful Dutch team SD Worx - Protime is without any of its four leaders in Australia. But that should not be an excuse to leave empty-handed. They are one of the best teams in the field, and the fast launchers of Lorena Wiebes are more than capable of fighting for triumph. In principle, judging by what happened since Saturday, Dutch Femke Gerritse will be the one to enjoy the lead. Along with Italian Barbara Guarischi and Polish Marta Lach, they form a trio of fast cyclists who, although usually responsible for preparing finishes, might well try to anticipate.

American Chloé Dygert (CANYON//SRAM zondacrypto) would be another major contender for victory. Like Rüegg, she is not a pure sprinter; her top speed is somewhat inferior to today's sprinters, but she also has almost incomparable 5 and 20' power thresholds. Although she hasn't shown the best sensations in the Tour Down Under, if she is on the starting line, she is a cyclist to watch at a finish.

Australians Alex Manly (AG Insurance-Soudal) and Ruby Roseman-Gannon (Liv AlUla Jayco), former teammates, are the great local hopes. In other circumstances, they might not be their teams' first cards, which have other riders more focused on mass finishes. However, both left us with a nice duel in the recent national criterium, which was won by Roseman-Gannon.

Possible Surprises

Wollaston's solidity, the superior top speed shown relative to the majority, crashes and illnesses, and the early point in the season make us not list many candidates for victory. However, the list of possible surprises broadens considerably due to these circumstances and because some teams have their main cards in current launchers but former sprinters.

The clearest example of this is Danish Emma Norsgaard Bjerg (Lild-Trek), who has so well embraced her role as a launcher or domestique for Balsamo that it's hard to see her seeking personal options. But why not relive her teammate Copponi's feat in this race? We mustn't forget Belgian Fien Van Eynde (Fenix-Premier Tech). As for sprinters whose physical condition raises doubts, we can highlight Italian Martina Fidanza (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Canadian Maggie Coles-Lyster (Human Powered Health) - who, moreover, is returning post-surgery.

Looking among the elite peloton's race, and competing under the Australian selection, the main card is probably pursuitist Sophie Edwards. To conclude, two names shouldn't be at the forefront of the finish because their profile may not fit. But who have surprised us several times infiltrating the finishes and working on their teammates' favor for their good final rush, we are talking about athletes like Canadian Olivia Baril (Movistar) or Polish Dominika Włodarczyk (UAE Team ADQ).