Race analysis, favourites, and predictions for Tirreno-Adriatico 2022

The 2021 edition of Tirreno-Adriatico included some of the most spectacular cycling days of last season, and it will be hard to beat. This year, although without two of the great animators of the last edition (Mathieu Van Der Poel (1000) and Wout Van Aert (1200)), a beautiful race is also expected with lots of top-level stars: in addition to the reigning champion Tadej Pogačar (1200), Remco Evenepoel (1200) and Julian Alaphilippe (1200) lead a starting list full of big names.

Route

The race is made up of 7 stages that cross Italy from coast to coast, with terrain for all types of riders. After the initial 14-kilometre time trial, 2 undulating stages with a possible sprint outcome follow. The fourth and fifth stages are ideal for puncheurs, with mid-mountain profiles and a top-hill finishes. On the penultimate day, the only mountain stage of the race takes place, which includes a double climb to Monte Carpegna (6.2 km at 9.6%) and which will undoubtedly be decisive for the general classification. Finally, the last stage presents the most obvious occasion for a bunch sprint.

Favorites

Tadej Pogačar (1200) is the current champion and the top favorite for the final victory, while Remco Evenepoel (1200) will presumably be his main rival. Enric Mas (1000), Richard Carapaz (1000), Jonas Vingegaard (800), Miguel Ángel López (800), Richie Porte (800), Damiano Caruso (600), Rigoberto Urán (600) and even Julian Alaphilippe (1200) can have their chance if Pogačar and Evenepoel are not as strong as usual.

With the time trial scheduled for stage 1, Filippo Ganna (800) and Remco Evenepoel (1200) are the top favorites to be the first leader of the race.

For the punchy finales, Julian Alaphilippe (1200) is on paper the strongest, but the list of puncheurs is long and includes cyclists such as Benoît Cosnefroy (400), Jakob Fuglsang (800), Matej Mohorič (800), Michael Matthews (800), Alex Aranburu (600), Warren Barguil (400) or Magnus Cort Nielsen (600).

Finally, a nice fight for sprints is also expected. Caleb Ewan (1000), Arnaud Demarre (1200), Pascal Ackermann (1000), Giacomo Nizzolo (800), Tim Merlier (800), Elia Viviani (600) and Alexander Kristoff (800) are the fastest men that we’ll see in the race.