Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced) from Le Puncheur.

Route analysis Vuelta a Valencia

STAGE 1 - Sprint finish.

• Schedule: 13:10 - 17:00 CET

This 159.6-kilometre stage between Segorbe and Torreblanca has a “sting in the tail”, but barring a huge surprise, it is designed for a sprint finish. Although the profile looks like a saw blade, the difficulties are perfectly manageable for the fast men: the Puerto Los Madroños, with its 4.6 km at 3.9% (and a final section of 2.1 km at 6.7%), should not be enough to drop them, just like the explosive Coll de las Costes d'Orpesa (1.5 km at 6.4%), which is crested with more than enough distance left to regroup the peloton. With the last 20 kilometres flat and favourable towards the coast, the sprinters’ teams have plenty of ground to control any skirmish and set up a bunch sprint in Torreblanca.

STAGE 2 - Individual time trial.

• Schedule: 14:17 - 17:00 CET

This individual time trial of 16.8 kilometres between Carlet and Alginet is a treat for the true specialists, even if the profile is misleading at first glance with that central lump. The key point of the day is the climb to Els Llacs, an ascent of 3.1 km at 3.6% that is crested halfway through the test (km 9) and that, despite not being a major climb, will force riders to manage their watts very well so as not to hit empty in the final stretch. With plenty of corners, the stage becomes technical, favouring those with better handling of the TT bike through the bends and punishing those who only rely on raw power; after the fast descent, the final flatter kilometres around Alginet will allow the specialists to fly and carve out the decisive gaps at the finish.

STAGE 3 - Medium mountains/Reduced sprint

• Schedule: 13:20 - 17:00 CET

This 157.6-kilometre stage between Orihuela and San Vicente del Raspeig is a direct invitation to chaos, with a profile split into two worlds: a completely flat start along the coast and a final block with some climbing. The moment of truth comes after Jijona, with the sequence of the Alto de Tibi (7.5 km at 5.0%) and the subsequent drag up towards the Collado de la Horna, a section where attacks could appear and the breakaway might have some presence. However, after the summit, about 22 kilometres from the finish, the terrain becomes favourable and downhill towards San Vicente, which gives enough margin for regroupments from behind; this leads us to a reduced sprint finish, where the sprinters who cope best with the medium mountains will fight for victory in a slightly uphill finale.

STAGE 4 - GC riders

• Schedule: 12:36 - 17:00 CET

A 172.5-kilometre stage with 3300 metres of elevation gain. Queen stage, and key to defining the final GC. The chaos will begin early with the sequence of Tàrbena and Coll de Rates, but the first big blow will come on the Alto Miserat, a wall of 5.4 km at 9.7% which, although far from the finish, will steadily wear riders down and could allow a breakaway with big-name riders. The final showdown is reserved for the chosen ones: the climb to Puig de la Llorença (2.3 km at 9.4%) will serve as a springboard for the decisive attacks, adding the sting of the Muro del Pou (250 m at 9.6%) before the finish in Teulada. The final metres continue on an upward trend.

STAGE 5 - Reduced sprint/Breakaway

• Schedule: 14:48 - 17:00 CET

The last day is only 94.5 kilometres between Bétera and Valencia, but it still holds some surprises. The epicentre of the chaos will be the Port del Garbí, a climb of 4.6 km at 7.0% that hides much steeper ramps and is crested 44 kilometres from the finish line. Although the previous terrain over the Port del Oronet (4.7 km at 4.4%) will serve to warm up the legs and form a dangerous break, it is on the Garbí where long-range attacks will be launched to try to overturn the GC. However, with almost 35 flat and favourable kilometres from Náquera to Valencia, any solo or small-group adventure will find it extremely difficult against the push of an organised peloton; most likely the Garbí will thin out the group, but the gaps will stabilise on the very fast run-in to the finish, leaving the stage win to a sprint of the chosen few or to a breakaway of riders who have lost a bit more time on GC.

THE WEATHER

Light rain is expected during the first days; however, it will gradually disappear as the days go by. On the other hand, temperatures will remain stable, always oscillating between 18 and 20 degrees. It will be essential to monitor how the wind evolves, as it could shape several stages.

GC CONTENDERS

With the route of this Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, anyone who wants to win the GC is obliged to fight for victory in the time trial and then be one of the strongest on the fourth day. This quickly sums up what we are going to see in the coming days of racing and clearly points us towards the name of the big favourite in this edition: Remco Evenepoel. Anything other than a win in at least the time trial and the overall for him would be a “disappointment”.

Behind him we find riders like João Almeida, Antonio Tiberi or Tobias Foss, who might be next in the pecking order of favourites, although I don’t quite trust the Norwegian. In fact, I even have more faith in a great performance from Iván Romeo—not to win, but to fight for that second place. After them we could even imagine Mads Pedersen or Mathias Vacek putting together a good GC. With no long high-mountain climbs deciding the race, they are riders who could be in the mix, if they want to be. I would not be surprised to see the Dane trying to ride for GC; last year we already saw him climbing very well at the start of the season, both in the Tour de la Provence and in Paris-Nice.

A step below we can find, on one hand, riders who can shine thanks to the time trial, such as Magnus Cort, Magnus Sheffield, Raúl García Pierna, Aleksandr Vlasov (with no room to shine in his own right), Pablo Castrillo, Ben Turner, Yves Lampaert, Abel Balderstone or, among the younger ones, Andrew August or Artem Shmidt. Besides these, there are also others who are more the opposite profile: riders who might suffer in the battle against the clock but be up there on the rest of the route, names like Giulio Pellizzari (who will also be at Remco’s service), Damiano Caruso, Steff Cras, Urko Berrade, Victor Langellotti, Tao Geoghegan Hart (I’m not sure which version of him we’ll see this year), Johannes Kulset or Cian Uijtdebroeks, who will probably be one of the big attractions and question marks. Making his debut with the ‘M’ on a route like this, we expect to see him at the front of the GC and, above all, on the most demanding stages.

A final section for riders who may fly more under the radar. Names like the already mentioned Andrew August or Artem Shmidt, but above all riders such as Pau Martí, Viktor Soenens, Jasper Schoofs, Adrià Pericas, Bálint Feldhoffer or Matteo Fabbro, who not long ago managed to raise his arms for the first time in his career during the Tour of Sharjah.

Looking at all this in perspective, it seems clear and obvious that victory should not slip away from Remco Evenepoel, and that from there we can imagine the rest taking two possible paths: either going out to fight for second place or trying something different to at least put the Belgian—and a Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe that comes with a really strong team—on the ropes at some point.

CANDIDATES FOR STAGE WINS

In addition to all the names already mentioned, we’ve covered the time trial and the more demanding stages, but we obviously have to talk about a rider profile with options on this route: the sprinters. A group led by Mads Pedersen and Biniam Girmay, who is also making his season debut with NSN. Behind them we find other names such as Arne Marit (coming off a win in Mallorca), Matevž Govekar, Giovanni Lonardi, César Macías, Mats Wenzel, Tommaso Nencini, Francisco Joel Peñuela or José Antonio Prieto, who along with other younger riders like Iker Villar could be in the fight on these days. We can also include riders such as Magnus Cort, Dries van Gestel or Ben Turner who, without being pure sprinters, given the start list we have, could be in the mix.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY

📂 In 5/6 of the last editions held in January–February, there was always a rider on the podium of this race who had also achieved a T3 days earlier in one of the mountain stages of the Challenge Mallorca.

2025:
The exception of recent years.

2024:
🥇 McNulty: 3rd Calvià & Tramuntana
🥉 Vlasov: 2nd Calvià & Tramuntana, 3rd Andratx

2023:
🥇 Rui Costa: 1st Calvià

2022:
🥇 Vlasov: 3rd Andratx

2021 and 2020:
It was held in April and May respectively.

2019:
🥈 Valverde: 3rd Tramuntana

2018:
🥇 Valverde: 3rd Tramuntana

This year, the following riders would fit this spot: Evenepoel, Morgado or Holter (if the latter two end up racing).

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📂 The individual time trial is going to play a key role in fantasy classification.
In the 2021 edition we also had an ITT, and it’s worth noting that that time, of the top 10, as many as 6 riders finished the race inside the top 10 of fantasy points.
This year, the ITT is on stage 2, which means lots of GC points in the following days.

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📂 For the young riders’ jersey, only riders born on or after 1 January 2001 will be considered.
In the last edition, riders like Iván Romeo or Carlos Rodríguez scored quite a lot thanks to this classification.
Romeo was 5th in fantasy points, and 21/102 came from the young riders’ jersey, while Carlos Rodríguez was 6th in fantasy points, adding 29/84 thanks to the young riders’ jersey.

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📂 Of the 9 most-picked riders, how many finished in the top 15 of fantasy points?
2025: 6
2024: 4
2023: 6
2022: 4
2021: 7

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📂 Of the 9 most-picked riders, how many did the winning user have?
2025: 7
2024: 3
2023: 4
2022: 4
2021: 6

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📂 My recommendation for your ‘9’

• 6–7 riders who are going to fight for GC (medium-mountain terrain)
• 1 sprinter, ideally one who is good in time trials.
• 1–2 pure time-trial specialists.
• 4–6 of the 9 most-picked riders.