Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

COURSE ANALYSIS

STAGE 1 – Sprint finish

Schedule: 13:00–17:40 CET
A 183.5 km stage between Vila Real de Santo António and Tavira, with a rolling profile but no major difficulties. The climbs to Mercador (3rd, 6.2 km at 4.4%) and Faz Fato (3rd, 4.4 km at 3.2%) should not prevent a sprint finish after the intermediate sprint in Vila Real de Santo António. The finale is interesting and could spring a surprise on the finish line.

STAGE 2 – GC riders / puncheurs

Schedule: 13:45–17:35 CET
A 147 km stage between Portimão and Alto de Fóia, with an uphill finish. After a rolling route, everything will be decided on the climb to Alto de Fóia (17.8 km at 4.2%), with a final ramp at 7.9% in the last 2.9 km. A key day for GC contenders, although this is not usually a finish where we see big gaps.

STAGE 3 – Individual time trial

Schedule: 14:00–17:30 CET
There is not much accumulated elevation in the 20 km time trial, around 175 metres of climbing, but the course is not especially favourable for specialists because of the number of turns. Even so, it is a key day for the GC.

STAGE 4 – Sprint stage

Schedule: 12:00–16:30 CET
The stage does not feature excessive difficulty overall, which suggests we will have a perfect scenario for the fast men. However, beware: the finale is designed to create chaos and disorganisation, with a short climb 2 km from the line of about 400 metres at 6%.

STAGE 5 – GC riders

Schedule: 13:00–16:50 CET
The key to this stage lies in the final kilometres, with a double ascent of Alto do Malhao (2.7 km at 9.1%), the ultimate judge of the race. It is not a long climb, but it is long and hard enough to overturn small gaps that might be shaping the GC.

THE WEATHER
Good weather is expected during the Volta ao Algarve. Neither wind, rain nor temperatures should play a decisive role in the race; even so, it will be necessary to keep an eye on how the weather evolves.

FAVOURITES FOR THE GC
This is an open route with no clear, standout favourite for the win, so there is a lot to talk about. It feels like the time trial could be the most decisive day, bearing in mind that neither Foia nor Malhão are climbs that usually allow big differences to be created. This leaves a wider range of possible surprises, considering that, on paper, João Almeida and Juan Ayuso are the main contenders for the overall victory, with the question of whether to put Paul Seixas directly into that group. I am really looking forward to seeing the Frenchman and, if he has taken a step forward this season, he could even come out of here with a win.

Behind these names, I’m inclined to trust Filippo Ganna, Florian Lipowitz and, above all, Brandon McNulty. There is no doubt about the American’s ability to fly against the clock and put up a fight in other scenarios; therefore, I don’t think it’s far-fetched at all to see him as a potential winner of this race. Florian Lipowitz leaves me with more doubts and, especially, Filippo Ganna, who has nonetheless already shown he can put together a good GC here.

Beyond them, other riders come into the picture, such as Kévin Vauquelin, Oscar Onley, Daniel Felipe Martínez, Thymen Arensman, Maximilian Schachmann, Stefan Küng or António Morgado, who can also be a very interesting card to play for UAE. Here we could add riders like Jarno Widar, Matthew Riccitello, Yannis Voisard or Max Poole, but I think the time trial will be too demanding for them to be truly in the thick of the fight.

Lastly, we must not forget riders who could spring a surprise, such as Juan Felipe Rodríguez, Jesús David Peña, Alexis Guerin or the two I trust the most: Thomas Gloag and Alessandro Pinarello. It will be difficult for them to secure a strong GC result because of the time trial, but I do expect to see them up front.

CANDIDATES FOR STAGE WINS
We will have to take into account the fast men, on the one hand, and the time trialists, on the other, as these are the two rider profiles that will start as favourites alongside the GC contenders.

Among the fast men, Jasper Philipsen clearly stands out, but the level is very high, with riders like Paul Magnier, Jordi Meeus, Arnaud De Lie, Pavel Bittner, Matteo Moschetti, Arne Marit or Tim Torn Teutenberg, who will be the main favourites in the flat stages, ahead of other interesting names such as Ben Turner, Oded Kogut, Noah Hobbs, Marijn van den Berg, Luca Mozzato, Leangel Linarez, Henri Uhlig or Santiago Mesa.

As for the time trialists, Filippo Ganna is the standout name, but we must not forget riders such as Kévin Vauquelin, Jakob Söderqvist, Ivo Oliveira, João Almeida, Florian Lipowitz, Johan Price-Pejtersen, Maximilian Schachmann or Juan Ayuso. We should also keep an eye on riders capable of springing a surprise in the top positions, such as Artem Nych, Huub Artz, Rafael Reis, Emanuel Duarte, Luca Giaimi or Jonathan Vervenne.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY
📝 A .Pro stage race which, judging by the startlist, could be WT. What does this mean? Exactly what you’re thinking: budget problems when trying to build your ideal ‘9’. On the start line we will have the 3rd, 4th, 7th and 12th from the last Tour de France and the 2nd and 5th from the last Vuelta a España, as well as Juan Ayuso and Paul Seixas.
It’s true we won’t have Pogacar, Vingegaard, del Toro, Remco or Roglic, but all the other big grand tour contenders in the peloton will be here this week in Portugal.

📝 There will be a young riders’ jersey in Fantasy, only for U23 riders. We have cyclists such as Seixas, Widar, Morgado, Poole or Héctor Álvarez.

📝 Given the proposed route, my ideal ‘9’ would look something like this:

6–7 riders to fight for GC
1–2 sprinters
1 pure time trialist

For the GC riders it’s important that they are strong in time trials, obviously, as there are almost 20 km of all-out effort.
For sprinters, we have Philipsen as the only cyclist who costs 1000 coins, but if he doesn’t win either of the two stages for the fast men, he will have been a real waste of budget. It might be a better option not to take such a big risk and go for cheaper sprinters like Moschetti, Mozzato, F. Christen, Turner, Teutenberg or Meeus – in other words, those in the 200–600 coin range; that would then give you plenty of room to choose the best riders for GC.
For the pure time trialist I wouldn’t overthink it and would stick to Ganna – Küng – McNulty. You can even combine one of the first two with the UAE Team rider (who climbs well), which can be a great option.

📂 Riders in the top 15 of Fantasy points who were selected by 10% or fewer users:
2025: 4 (including Tivani Pérez, mountains jersey winner, with 0.1%)
2024: 3
2023: 2
2022: 4 (including João Matias, mountains jersey winner, with 0.1%)

As we can see, this is not a race where riders with a low selection percentage tend to have a big impact on the contest.

📂 Winners on Alto da Foia, which stage it was, and the final position of the winner in the Fantasy points ranking:
2025: Jan Christen – stage 2 – 1st with the most Fantasy points
2024: Daniel F. Martínez – stage 2 – 1st
2023: Cort Nielsen – stage 2 – 1st
2022: David Gaudu – stage 2 – 2nd

Now everyone can draw their own conclusions. Remember that the time trial comes right after this stage.