Analysis written by Sergio Yustos (@sergioyustos_) and Fantasy Tips by Cédric Molina (@ilcapoced)

ROUTE ANALYSIS

STAGE 1 - GC riders / Breakaway

Schedule: 11:50 - 15:40 CET
This leg-breaking stage through the Sierra de las Nieves invites attacks, with an explosive start on the Puerto del Madroño (19.8 km - 4.9%), ideal for forming quality breakaways. The terrain that follows, without a single flat metre and with constant sequences of climbs, is the perfect setting to split the race before reaching Guaro and then make the most of the more favourable run-in to the finish.

STAGE 2 - Reduced bunch sprint / Breakaway

Schedule: 12:10 - 15:40 CET
Again, a day with a lot of elevation gain, and a profile that once more encourages long-range moves. The Puerto de la Cabra (25.1 km - 4.6%) is key to seeing how the day will be decided, with the Alto de la Malahá (2.6 km - 4.2%) providing the last key launchpad for attacks.

STAGE 3 - Puncheurs / Breakaway

Schedule: 11:10 - 15:45 CET
There’s less overall difficulty than in the two previous stages and no single point where the race is certain to blow apart, but this third stage still encourages long-range attacks. It might slip slightly under the radar, yet the finale is actually quite tough and that could end up being decisive for the outcome of the day.

STAGE 4 - Sprint stage / Breakaway

Schedule: 12:00 - 16:30 CET
Perhaps only the climb to the Alto de Españares (7.9 km - 3.7%) really stands out, but the stage once again tops 2,000 metres of elevation gain. Even so, if a team is able to control the breakaway and the various skirmishes that may arise, this is the best day for the fast men.

STAGE 5 - GC riders / Puncheurs

Schedule: 10:55 - 15:00 CET
The double final ascent to the Alto de la Primera Cruz (2.8 km - 6%) and the first passage over the finish line in Lucena (900 m - 7.3%) should be decisive for the GC in a final stage that offers an attractive route for attacks.

THE WEATHER
The Vuelta a Andalucía will start with a very low chance of rain during the opening days. After that, the showers are expected to disappear completely, giving way to generally stable conditions where neither wind nor temperatures should be decisive factors, except at very specific moments of the race.

FAVORITES FOR THE GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
With a route like this it’s hard to narrow it down to a small group of riders. The race can split at any moment and from far out, and any tactical move could be even more decisive than simply having the strongest legs. On top of that, the climbs generally don’t have extreme gradients, but the difficulty accumulates almost continuously, which encourages even more riders to fight for the win.

Looking at the start list and the form he brings, it makes a lot of sense to see Tim Wellens as the big favorite. He has already fought for the GC here and is usually a rider who starts the season with this kind of objective. Behind him, his teammate Pavel Sivakov, Tom Pidcock and Aleksandr Vlasov look like the next wheels to follow: three intelligent riders, capable of attacking from far out and who know what it means to fight for races at this level.

After these names we find others like Romain Grégoire or Iván Romeo, in whom I place a lot of trust here, who together with riders like Alex Aranburu, Torstein Træen, Juanpe López, Jan Christen, Jefferson Cepeda, Johannes Kulset, Valentin Madouas, Benoît Cosnefroy, Andreas Leknessund, Ion Izagirre, Dylan Teuns and Fred Wright could be fighting for the GC. It’s a very long list, yes, but it’s also true that this is a route that invites exactly that.

Finally, in the surprise bracket, we may find riders we shouldn’t completely rule out either, such as Christophe Laporte or Victor Campenaerts, together with others like Bastien Tronchon, Maxime Decomble, Matisse Van Kerckhove, Michiel Lambrecht and my two picks for this race: Milan Vader and Adrien Boichis.

CONTENDERS FOR STAGE WINS
We’ll have to take the fast men into account, although they will have to work hard to chase a stage win and, frankly, I would almost rule out the purest sprinters, who in any case are quite few. Here we find riders like Milan Fretin, Søren Wærenskjold, Orluis Aular, Paul Penhoët, Fernando Gaviria, Axel Zingle, Tom Crabbe, Filippo Fiorelli, Davide Persico and José Antonio Prieto. It’s true that it won’t be easy for them to control the different opportunities that will arise during the race.

For this reason, I don’t want to overlook profiles like Mario Aparicio, Unai Iribar, Joel Nicolau, Julius Johansen, Sven Erik Bystrøm, Thomas Gachignard, Sandy Dujardin, Clément Russo, Vincent Van Hemelen, Iván Cobo and Quinten Hermans; riders I don’t necessarily see in the mix every single day, but whom I do think we must take very seriously when it comes to breakaways and stage wins.

IL CAPO CED’S RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE A CAPO IN FANTASY
📝 There will be no young riders classification.
📝 Given the route, my recommendation for your ideal ‘9’ would be something like:

4–5 riders fighting for the GC
4–5 sprinters

📂 Riders who managed to finish top-15 in Fantasy points and who were picked by 10% or fewer users:

2025: 7

2023: 6

2022: 6 (5 of them with less than 1%)

2021: 6

As we can see, this is a race in which historically the popular vote has not been very accurate, and several riders who flew under the radar when it came to being selected later ended up putting together a great race.

📝 Based on the previous data, here is a small personal recommendation of riders (with 10% or fewer selections at the time this preview is written) who could make that top-15 in Fantasy points in this year’s edition:
Wright, Barrenetxea, Hermans, Juanpe López, Tronchon, Teuns, Fiorelli, Johansen, Masnada, Boichis, Nicolau, Hoelgaard, Gachignard, Decomble, Vandenabeele.